Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:09:21

Constituency Profile


Dhaliwal, Sukh

Hundal, Parveer

Johal, Avneet

Mohsin, Syed

Singh, Pamela


Sukh Dhaliwal

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



30.04 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Sukh Dhaliwal ** 1896045.00%
Harjit Singh Gill 1230629.20%
Harpreet Singh 882421.00%
Rabaab Khehra 13553.20%
Holly Verchère 6531.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sukh Dhaliwal 2486956.00%
Jinny Sims ** 1160226.10%
Harpreet Singh 697815.70%
Pamela Sangha 9752.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1990.61%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Newton-North Delta
   (67.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (27.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Surrey North
   (5.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 A.S.
Actually, as convenient as comparisons to the GTA's Liberal ethnoburbia might be, there's something quite exceptional about the Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal machine, even if it helped seed subsequent Grit support in Surrey--well, there *had to be*, for him to survive 2008 and nearly 2011 as well. Though unlike Surrey Centre, the NDP *did* gain share here in 2019, and it was now *their* best Surrey riding as well (yet here, too, the Cons were bigger gainers). Not enough to deny Dhaliwal having the top Lib share in BC--though that '19's BC ceiling was only 45% for the Libs ought to come as a warning. *Maybe* he's not so invulnerable--or at least, more conventionally vulnerable--in the long term.
22/08/21 Sam
Yeah, it's hard to understate how much the 2011 win for the NDP was mostly a lucky win following the Liberal collapse that year - and barring a similar one it's hard to see Sukh Dhaliwal, by all means a well-known and proven standard bearer, being defeated. No different from some of the other South Asian ridings which have shown vulnerability to the CPC and NDP, such as those in Brampton, but have ultimately piled on the votes for the Liberals.
30/06/21 Negative Inference
Sukh Dhaliwal is arguably the safest Liberal MP in Surrey. He has the most political experience (not just by tenure in parliament) and is most organized politically. The NDP (the primary rival here) would likely target nearby seats and not this one, so expect Dhaliwal to return with little difficulies.

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