Election Prediction Project

Surrey Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-17 09:26:47

Constituency Profile


Abbott, Ryan

Andhi, Sonia

Bains, Tina

Kennedy, Joe

Kongyuy, Felix

Pielak, Kevin

Sarai, Randeep


Randeep Singh Sarai

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



40.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Randeep Singh Sarai ** 1545337.40%
Sarjit Singh Saran 1135327.50%
Tina Bains 1050525.40%
John Werring 25586.20%
Jaswinder Singh Dilawari 7091.70%
Kevin Pielak 3780.90%
Jeffrey Breti 2430.60%
George Gidora 1200.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randeep Sarai 1947145.10%
Jasbir Sandhu ** 1299230.10%
Sucha Thind 855619.80%
Jeremiah Deneault 14933.50%
Kevin Pielak 5531.30%
Iqbal Kahlon 1330.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9482.91%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Surrey North
   (99.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

16/09/21 Physastr Master
I don't think the swings currently seen in BC are enough to flip this, however this is a riding with large Sikh population, so there is a Jagmeet Singh wild card that could magically pull it off. I had more faith in that magic last time and was wrong. This time around I'm not feeling like that magic's any stronger, so I'm not holding my breath. Liberal Hold.
16/09/21 George
Mainstreet of Sept 4 had a healthy lead among decided voters, 40 Liberal to 24 NDP and 23 Con. Maybe things have shifted since then, but that is a notable lead.
14/09/21 Nick M.
NDP are very well organized throughout Greater Vancouver Area.
In close rematches were LPC nudged out NDP in BC, look for NDP to come out on top this time.
03/09/21 Dr Bear
While the NDP are currently doing better in BC than in 2019, that is largely at the expense of the Greens. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are polling close to what they got in 2019. That would suggest to me that Surrey Centre is moderately safe for the Liberals (for the moment).
02/09/21 R.O.
Randeep Sarni was first elected here in 2015 and re elected in 2019. But this riding has the reputation of being a swing riding so been held by many different mp’s and parties over the years including ndp and conservative. Tina Bains has returned as the cpc candidate this year and ndp have a new candidate Sonia Andhi . so depends what happens in BC this election
27/08/21 EAW
This was an NDP-Conservative swing riding (when it was Surrey North) before the Trudeau wave in 2015. I do wonder with the NDP doing a lot better in BC if this riding should be too close to call at the very least now?
25/08/21 A.S.
The problem w/the Liberals-holding-this-comfortably assessment is that 37.4% is a bit of a danger-zone share for the Libs--we're not talking about a Surrey Newton-level cushion here; and indeed, pre-2015, this *was* the sort of riding where provincial NDP support translated into federal NDP support, it's just that Justinmania opened up a latency that was always there. Yet '19 illuminated how vulnerable that latency really was...though rather ambiguously; in fact, the Cons were the bigger beneficiaries from the leakage, pressing uncomfortably close to the NDP for 2nd--and moreover, getting a lot of poll success out Guildford way (by comparison, the NDP tended to tag-team the Libs a lot more). For all one knows, we could have a 3-way in the works...
21/07/21 Thomas K
The Liberals will hold this comfortably. This is not the type of riding where BC NDP support translates into federal NDP support. Despite the industrial nature of the riding, it is ultimately still suburban and rapidly gentrifying. Barring an NDP surge to around 24% nationally and a simultaneous Liberal meltdown to at least 5% below the Conservatives, this will stay Liberal.

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