Election Prediction Project

Steveston-Richmond East
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:09:12

Constituency Profile


Bains, Parm

Chiu, Kenny

Raunet, Françoise

Singh, Jennifer

Trovato, Jack


Kenny Chiu

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



86.03 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kenny Chiu 1747841.70%
Joe Peschisolido ** 1473135.10%
Jaeden Dela Torre 632115.10%
Nicole Iaci 29727.10%
Ping Chan 4491.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joe Peschisolido 1948645.10%
Kenny Chiu 1663038.50%
Scott Stewart 524812.10%
Laura-Leah Shaw 15873.70%
Matthew Swanston 2740.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1770.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Delta-Richmond East
   (67.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.96% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/09/21 ReubenJames
A lot of supporting early evidence supports this current call; however, there are a few things that suggests this should go TCTC until election night. Fact 1- Richmond has been a community that showed solidarity in following all pandemic advisories, and is amongst the highest vaccine rates in B.C.
Fact 2- various elements on Chinese social media have multilayer dissonance regarding the support of traditional parties. OToole agents have been doing some slick messaging that features falsehoods about the Grits’ plans on both a home sales tax and immigration. The PPC seems to be resilient in mining from the Con support, & could play spoiler. Lastly, OTooles soft on anti-vaxxers is stabilizing the Liberals after a brief dip in the polls. Can the incumbents thwart a PPC mini-surge (as much as 10% across the two riding) or can the Grits extend this current boost to the finish line? My gut feeling says maybe, but I’m not sure who’s more at risk, Kenny or Alice...
02/09/21 R.O.
Kenny Chiu was first elected in 2019 but had also been the candidate here in 2015. Managed to beat a well known liberal incumbent last election and faces new candidates this year. Parm Bains liberal and Jack Trovato ndp. Likely to stay cpc
25/08/21 A.S.
I'd still give the Libs the benefit of the doubt here, in part as carryover from their holding it in '15, and in part because it's the less monolithically ‘Chinese’ part of Richmond--indeed, ‘Anglo’ Steveston was, in '19, the most Lib/un-Con part remaining. As far as broader trajectories go, who knows; but who knows, too, about Millennial-generation Chinese and which way *they'd* lean (after all, in whatever little bit, they probably helped win those Richmond ridings for the provincial NDP)
30/06/21 Negative Inference
Chiu as a rookie MP has been impressing lots of people, both at home and with the eastern Canada media, with his thoughtful yet forceful discourse on China (though his social conservativism has not!) Richmond's Chinese population (and even more so its voting base) still lean more heavily with Hong Kong immigrant than mainland Chinese, so I expect his stances on China would be rewarded.

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