Election Prediction Project

South Surrey-White Rock
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:08:41

Constituency Profile


Findlay, Kerry-Lynne

Hogg, Gordie

Jensen, Gary

Liu, June


Kerry-Lynne Findlay

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



144.47 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kerry-Lynne Findlay 2431041.90%
Gordie Hogg ** 2169237.40%
Stephen Crozier 671611.60%
Beverly Pixie Hobby 44587.70%
Joel Poulin 8521.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dianne Lynn Watts 2493444.00%
Judy Higginbotham 2349541.50%
Pixie Hobby 589510.40%
Larry Colero 19383.40%
Bonnie Hu 2610.50%
Brian Marlatt 1080.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 13432.97%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
   (95.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Newton-North Delta
   (3.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (0.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

03/09/21 R.O.
Rematch of 2019 election except Kerry Lynne Findlay is now the incumbent and Gordie Hogg a former mp who held the seat briefly after winning a by election in 2017. Although he was well known in the area as he had been a liberal mla provincially. True there is no green candidates in several swing ridings in suburban BC this election and I’m not really sure why those ridings specifically are without one. This riding has been conservative for years going back to the 80’s , believe the by election was the only time its been liberal in recent memory and then it returned to the cpc in the next election even with a popular incumbent running for re election.
03/09/21 Dr Bear
Supplemental comment to my previous post: the candidate deadline has passed and there is no Green candidate in this riding. That is 7.7% of the vote freed up from 2019. Where will it go? Who knows? But it is more likely to go to the Liberals than the Conservatives. That would really narrow up this race. TCTC
25/08/21 A.S.
It must be said that Gordie Hogg didn't do badly for a so-called ‘byelection fluke’--that is, his share in loss was less than a third of a point below that in two of three of the Surrey seats the Libs won. It isn't really *that* hostile a riding for Lib support, whether it be through the Panorama Ridge fringe or through White Rock itself (whose retirement-community rep has already long made it a ‘natural’ party base, albeit not enough to prevail in times when the political brand's been unelectable in BC), And as usual, whatever Fraser Valley Bible Belt element has long been in retreat--which is part of why KLF's ‘sure bet’ takeback turned out to be supermarginal instead. The days of South Surrey Con monoliths are long over, even if simple viability/winnability isn't.
16/08/21 Dr Bear
With both the Liberals and the CPC running well known candidates that have both previously been the MP for this riding, and with the closeness of the vote in the previous elections, and with the incumbent CPC currently down in the polls (especially in BC), then this seat should be listed as TCTC.
31/07/21 Thomas K
Changing my prediction to Conservative: It appears more and more by the day that the Conservative polling trough is moreso the result of a pandemic polling boost for the Liberals rather than a specific, emphatic disapproval of O'Toole. Also, BC doesn't really fit into the same political mould as the rest of Canada--climate change will be a major campaign issue in BC in 2019 given recent events here, and with the Annamie Paul controversy, the NDP will probably end up eating the Green Party's lunch. This momentum would in turn probably split some votes away from the Liberals, which, in this riding, where the NDP is not competitive, would benefit the Conservatives.
There are lots of seniors in this riding, which could arise as an issue as well with the pandemic-related LTC home issues.
Development is also not as fast here as in the rest of the Fraser Valley area. Because of this combination of issues, I'm inclined to believe that despite certain Liberal efforts to flip this, it will likely stay Conservative.
22/07/21 Garth
Most polls are showing Conservative vote down in BC. This riding is one that will flip if the polling is accurate and the election is held soon. At this time, it does not make sense to have it as a Conservative hold.
21/07/21 Thomas K
TCTC for now, but the Liberals will certainly be targeting this suburban Surrey riding. The BC NDP fell short here in 2020, so I would currently give it a slight Conservative tilt.
11/07/21 Lolitha
I would rate this as TCTC for now, the riding has had three recent close elections (within about 5% margin) in 2015, 2017, 2019.
05/07/21 KXS
It's pre-mature to call this for the Conservatives when they won this by a small margin in 2019.
The Liberals are doing better in the polls in BC and the Greens are down.
Should be TCTC.
30/06/21 Negative Inference
Good for Gordie Hogg for offering again, but the byelection was an exception which is extremely unlikely to repeat.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster