Election Prediction Project

South Okanagan-West Kootenay
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:36:41

Constituency Profile


Cannings, Richard

Howse, Tara

Konanz, Helena

Robertson, Ken

Taylor, Sean


Richard Cannings

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



17699.23 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Richard Cannings ** 2480936.40%
Helena Konanz 2401335.20%
Connie Denesiuk 1170517.20%
Tara Howse 56728.30%
Sean Taylor 16382.40%
Carolina Hopkins 3590.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Richard Cannings 2482337.30%
Marshall Neufeld 1987129.80%
Connie Denesiuk 1873228.10%
Samantha Troy 27924.20%
Brian Gray 3760.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3080.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (58.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Traveller
I don’t see the NDP losing any seats in BC.
16/09/21 Dr Bear
An observation rather than a prediction here. I was in Penticton last weekend. Very obvious NDP, CPC, and PPC signage in the area. The Greens had a smattering of signs but not one single Liberal sign. It was as if the Liberals were not running a candidate.
15/09/21 Physastr Master
I think the PPC surge that is shredding the CPC support especially in rural provinces should make this a safe NDP call. I don't think it will be a blowout though.
14/09/21 Nick M.
I am assuming that BC NDP strong organization in Greater Vancouver area, will extend to all BC ridings that are NDP incumbents.
NDP will win on strong organization despite a strong turnout for CPC.
12/09/20 Dr Bear
Polling has the CPC down four point while the NDP are up six points in BC relative to 2019 (the Liberals up one point so mostly unchanged). The Greens have lost half of their support and are tied with the PPC with about 6% each. Considering these numbers, and considering that a chunk of the PPC support comes from the CPC, this seat is staying safely in the NDP column.
31/08/21 R.O.
Riding a rematch of 2019 with incumbent ndp mp Richard Cannings and conservative candidate Helena Konanz. Riding in its current boundaries was created in 2015 and a mix of conservative and ndp ridings. very close race here in the last election compared to 2015. So likely a close race this year as well and will depend on how the overall race in BC plays out.
25/08/21 A.S.
A ‘justifiable’ rematch from '19. Cannings' virtues are those of continued incumbency and high NDP polling at large. But still, there's a shotgun awkwardness to the riding's configuration (even if Penticton isn't as Dipper-hostile as could have been imagined)--almost as if the separation of the Nelson-zone from the Castlegar/Trail-zone were destined to mutually cancel out rather than strengthen-through-distribution NDP strength. (A little like the Saskatchewan ‘rurbans’ in the 1990s.) So I'll continue my circumspection.
09/08/21 Sam
On the current polling numbers, I think this riding is firmly in the NDP column. It might become closer down the line as the NDP often underperform their polls, but the Conservatives' best shot was last time, and the swing was lower here than in the riding next door - possibly due to the strength of the local-minded incumbent, and less of a 'resource base' here, but I would argue that this territory is more likely to vote NDP in this election too. And as always, while it's worth noting that provincial trends and results don't always translate, I think the NDP strength here outside of Penticton is a sign that there is a definite bloc of voters they can count on.
If there is a big shift, I reserve the right to change my own prediction to TCTC!
21/07/21 Thomas K
Despite the BC NDP's minimal inroads here provincially in 2020, with the NDP polling well and the Conservatives polling poorly in BC, the NDP should be able to hold this.
This seat will likely be competitive, but, I'm still giving it to the NDP, even if it's by a razor thin margin like in 2019.

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