Election Prediction Project

Saanich-Gulf Islands
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:59:32

Constituency Profile


Busch, David

Currie, Dock

Hilderman, David

May, Elizabeth

Moore-Arbour, Sherri

Singh, Sabina


Elizabeth May

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



499.47 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Elizabeth May ** 3345449.10%
David Busch 1378420.20%
Ryan Windsor 1132616.60%
Sabina Singh 865712.70%
Ron Broda 9291.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Elizabeth May ** 3707054.40%
Robert Boyd 1326019.50%
Tim Kane 1138016.70%
Alicia Cormier 61819.10%
Meghan Jess Porter 2490.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saanich-Gulf Islands
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 A.S.
I was willing to throw in a non-prediction; but the fact that the Annamie crisis hasn't so far been driving Green polling *quite* as underwater as it could reinforces the notion of Elly May being eternal as long as she wants it. And if the conventional wisdom is that the Greens are thoroughly imploded post-May, watch the Cons *and* the NDP *and* the Libs (for whom the affluent Red/Green Toryism hereabouts is very congenial--and it's part of why the Green-endorsed Liberal candidate did such a strong big-tent 2nd in '08, w/help from a disgraced NDP candidate)
20/08/21 Gritbusters
Not much of a reach here: May still has a strong following in her own right and is the default ABC vote in a riding that the Reform-a-Tories had previously held for years.
19/08/21 Marco Ricci
Elizabeth May's winning margin dropped several points in 2019 after the high of 2015, but she remains the strongest MP the Greens have.
04/08/21 LeftCoast
Ms. May remains personally very popular. The real contest in this riding will be for second place. The Conservatives and NDP, who have both re-nominated their 2019 candidates, should be trying for a strong second place finish, since when May does eventually retire, they each have a good chance of winning here.
Easy Green win, but look for signs in the turnout in stronger NDP areas (south part of the riding in Saanich) and Conservative areas (north part of the riding, like Sidney and Central Saanich)
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Je vois mal comment Elisabeth May pourrait perdre sa circonscription. Elle est solidement implantée et demeure le visage des Verts au Canada. Ce sera un gain facile pour elle.

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