Election Prediction Project

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:35:45

Constituency Profile


Buddle, Peter

Dalton, Marc

Hoffmann, Juliuss

Klapwyk, Phil

Ranta, Steven William

Yousef, Ahmed


Marc Dalton

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2045.92 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marc Dalton 1965036.20%
Dan Ruimy ** 1612529.70%
John Mogk 1295823.90%
Ariane Jaschke 43328.00%
Bryton Cherrier 6981.30%
Steve Ranta 4680.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dan Ruimy 1767333.90%
Mike Murray 1637331.40%
Bob D'Eith 1545029.60%
Peter Tam 22024.20%
Steve Ranta 4520.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 Physastr Master
Given how skewed against the NDP mainstreet riding-level polling has frequently been, especially in Western Canada, their poll here indicates to me that the NDP are well-positioned, although I don't like making calls off of extrapolation of their terrible record alone. I do however believe based on overall trends that the NDP and Conservatives are likely the most competitive parties here, as the Liberals aren't seeing very notable growth in BC and no longer having an incumbent doesn't help either. The NDP has been taking a bit of a dent lately apparently due to the PPC surge, but I think this is mainly among younger urban voters (see my post in Essex), and since this is pretty far from Vancouver proper I suspect this will behave more like the rest of the west - a clean swing from CPC to PPC, leaving the NDP unscathed and able to win. The green also did pretty well (for a green) last election and there is no green candidate this time, so that will also help. Also note that in the last BC election this is where the NDP most overperformed, absolutely dominating the north bank of the Fraser Valley. tooclosetocall.ca also has this going NDP. There's a lot going right for the NDP here, and I think they'll win.
04/09/21 Walnut
This is one of the more interesting contests and justifiably in the 'too close' category. The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP have all had good showings in the last two elections with only a small shift in votes resulting in unseating the Liberal incumbent Ruimy in 2019. The current polling is projecting a similar 3-way race now. Of the three, my 'prediction' is that the Liberal Yousef will win because he appears to be the best candidate of them with an ability to be charming and relatable and he is with a party that has been targeting growing suburban areas like this with their housing and infrastructure initiatives over multiple elections. The NDP have been surging but it is not clear if that support is coming at the expense of Dalton or Yousef (or equally both). I expect that Yousef will out-perform the Liberal Party in BC and that if Dalton does end up winning, it will be more because of the national campaigns.
03/09/21 Thomas K
The Liberals are in a freefall in BC, I highly doubt they're going to be able to flip this. Marc Dalton is a competent MLA with long-time connections to the community, I don't see him losing. He will probably increase his margin of victory, and perhaps see the Liberals slip to 3rd place behind the NDP.
01/09/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet riding poll has a three way race. Among Decided and leaning:
34 Conservative 30 NDP 27 Liberal
25/08/21 A.S.
For some reason, my '19 entry for this registered as ‘Liberal’; however, the 3-way supermarginal situation in '15 and the lack of prior Liberal history hereabouts would have made any such firm prediction perverse to the utmost--and besides, the former single-term Lib office-holder isn't running again. And while other than that single term, PMMR might present a recent face of uniform right-of-centre federal representation, upon close inspection it's actually a fairly ‘soft’ face--it might only seem otherwise because of the grip Reform/Alliance once held upon such territory and because of HarperCon incumbent supremacy in '08/'11; but the NDP was consistently in the 32-36% range in the Layton era reflecting this being a serious target, and they only fell off subsequently because of Justinmania and the incumbency that generated. And provincially, the BCNDP now carries this territory by landslide margins, rather than the lesser margins going into '19. It's vulnerable, make no mistake.
19/08/21 R.O.
Marc Dalton is a first term mp although he had been a bc liberal mla for this area previously . so he’s fairly well known in the riding by now. This is a long time conservative area of bc , true it somehow went liberal in 2015 but every other election in recent memory been right of centre parties elected here .
26/07/21 Thomas K
TCTC for now: this will be a riding to watch on election night. Although the NDP probably won't be a serious contender to win the seat, they have a strong presence in this riding and could very well steal some votes away from the incumbent Liberal, allowing the CPC to take this. It will all come down to the NDP's strength in BC and whether the Conservatives can recover some support from their current polling trough.

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