Election Prediction Project

North Vancouver
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:58:19

Constituency Profile


Bentz, Tammy

Galloway, John

Jickling, Les

Kaario, Archie

Wilkinson, Jonathan


Jonathan Wilkinson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



335.16 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jonathan Wilkinson ** 2697942.90%
Andrew Saxton 1690826.90%
Justine Bell 1034016.40%
George Orr 786812.50%
Azmairnin Jadavji 8351.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jonathan Wilkinson 3645856.70%
Andrew Saxton ** 1730126.90%
Claire Martin 53508.30%
Carleen Thomas 50157.80%
Ismet Yetisen 1360.20%
Payam Azad 940.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3230.64%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   North Vancouver
   (93.22% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (6.78% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Sam
I don't know about the local dynamics another predictor described - though it's a noticeable point that we didn't even see the marginal increases in the vote that other ridings saw, even where that is only 3 points. It suggests to me that middle-class BC Liberal dynamic has waned slightly - and the recent provincial numbers can't be seen as especially good for the CPC. I just think there hasn't been enough of a shift for the CPC to close the gap - though I might be wrong.
06/09/21 Nick M.
This will be closer than common sense thinks. Liberal party is generally pretty alien in the West, voter behaviour is not like Ontario.
The the incumbent MP is bashing the Conservative Candidate, and not bashing the national campaign, means objects in the rear are closer than they appear.
25/08/21 A.S.
Like Vancouvers Centre & Quadra, the Lib vote here did a roughly quarter-of-the-vote-share tailspin and it still wasn't enough to come close to knocking them out--maybe the more salient stat (and perhaps reflecting/anticipating provincial NDP success) is how NDP and Green combined wound up outpolling the ex-MP CPC candidate.
22/05/21 MF
While once rather conservative place, North Van is a fairly educated and affluent inner suburb that has urbanized significantly and shifted in a more (small-"l") liberal direction. The NDP now holds it provincially. The Liberals won by comfortable margins in the last federal election and there's no reason to see things changing here.

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