Election Prediction Project

New Westminster-Burnaby
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-22 10:58:03

Constituency Profile


Heide, Kevin

Jaffer, Rozina

Julian, Peter

Macdonald, David

Munro, Paige


Peter Julian

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



26.30 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Peter Julian ** 2343744.20%
Will Davis 1241423.40%
Megan Veck 1143921.60%
Suzanne de Montigny 43788.30%
Hansen Ginn 8621.60%
Neeraj Murarka 3070.60%
Ahmad Passyar 830.20%
Joseph Theriault 570.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Peter Julian ** 2287643.50%
Sasha Ramnarine 1525329.00%
Chloé Ellis 1051220.00%
Kyle Routledge 24874.70%
Rex Brocki 13682.60%
Joseph Theriault 1460.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1770.43%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Burnaby-New Westminster
   (68.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (31.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

02/09/21 R.O.
Peter Julian has been mp of this riding since 2004 hard to believe now that it had been a reform/alliance riding before that. But ndp likely to hold the riding this election
25/08/21 A.S.
How the NDP maintains its iron grip on New Westminster is, aside from Peter Julian's political gifts, a puzzle--my suspicion is that it has something to do with an age-old small-city ‘Lotusland Anglospheric’ element not unlike Victoria. Something that hasn't been smothered by bustle or coarsened by ‘new arrivals’; almost like ‘Diefen-Dippers’ of a sort. Maybe a bit analogous to Guelph/Kingston Liberals, albeit without the conspicuous campus/institutional element. Or Aussie/NZ Labo(u)r, in its way? (That is, more ‘Pacific’ than ‘Atlantic’.) Whatever it is, they make it work...
The NDP retained this seat in 2019, did slightly better than in 2015. I expect this one to remain NDP by a fairly healthy margin.
17/05/21 ME
This is a safe NDP riding on 338

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