Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-14 23:20:48

Constituency Profile


Barron, Lisa Marie

Corfield, Michelle

Kronis, Tamara

Manly, Paul

Welton, Stephen


Paul Manly

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1728.28 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Paul Manly ** 2484434.60%
John Hirst 1863425.90%
Bob Chamberlin 1698523.60%
Michelle Corfield 973513.50%
Jennifer Clarke 10491.50%
Geoff Stoneman 2350.30%
Brian Marlatt 2070.30%
James Chumsa 1040.10%
Echo White 710.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sheila Malcolmson 2365133.20%
Tim Tessier 1675323.50%
Mark Allen MacDonald 1663723.40%
Paul Manly 1407419.80%
Jack East 1260.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2750.49%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (55.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (44.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Eco Justice Voter
The Mainstreet/iPolitics Election Barometer predicts 2 Green seats in BC.
Additionally, Heartwood Institute conducted a live interview poll showing similar results as the other one (below) commissioned by the Green Party:
Decided voters: Green (36%), Con (28%), NDP (25%), Lib (10%), PPC (1%)
24% are undecided; sample size: 500; MOE +/-4.4%, 19/20 times; method: live telephone interview/survey; firm: OraclePoll
Though this poll is different than the other one because it also focuses on the issue of strategic voting. Link right here: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/heartwood/pages/66/attachments/original/1631575244/Heartwood_Strategic_Voting_Report.pdf?1631575244
14/09/21 lgbt_climatevoter1
A new Oraclepoll came out today (conducted between September 3-7, 2021), which shows Paul Manly in a strong 8-point lead over Conservatives.
DECIDED VOTERS- Paul Manly (Grn): 36%; Tamara Kronis (Conservative): 28%; Lisa Barron (NDP): 25%; Michelle Corfield (Liberal): 10%; Welton (PPC)- 1&
Decided and undecided combined: Green (27%), Con (21%), NDP (19%), Lib (9.9%), PPC (1.3%), Undecided (24%)
Sample size: 500 voting-age adults, MOE +/- 4.4%, 19/20 times
PDF is not viewable on web, so you have to download from this website link: https://www.reelectpaulmanly.ca/post/sept3-7poll
13/09/21 Island Voter
Paul is well respected within the community and has a strong team of volunteers. I would suggest that he will pull through this time around with slightly less of the popular vote compared to last time.
05/09/21 Nick M.
I’m going to have to walk back my NDP pick, and go with TCTC.
O’Toole made a whistle stop here. And he usually only campaigns in his studio. So if he thinks it is important enough to visit, than it is TCTC.
03/09/21 R.O.
One thing the voters here must be tired of elections as this riding saw a by election in mid 2019 , this election will be the 3rd in close to 2 years. Paul Manly has won the last 2 elections here as a green candidate , the first non party leader green candidate to get elected. Not sure how much staying power he has as the incumbent in a riding that had been ndp previously. But if the greens win any seats it likely be one of them but at this point too unpredictable
31/08/21 Not Non-Partisan
Tamara Kronis is a highly skilled political organizer (John Tory’s election COO). Plus the 338 polls show the CPC ahead here. The overall CPC BC numbers have to be manifested in wins in unexpected places. This is one where they’ll win.
27/08/21 Sam
A lot has been said already about the Green/NDP battle. What if the CPC were to come up the middle? It would be a surprise, but worth a watch.
In any case, Manly's win was as has been said fuelled by a willingness to stay with him after a by-election he's a dedicated standard bearer sure, but not undefeatable surely.
25/08/21 A.S.
What helped get Manly byelected was early Jagmeet-leadership doldrums and complacency. What helped get him reelected was incumbency in a region where his party had the sturdiest base. The circumstances behind his leaving the NDP are peripheral to what got him elected (Palestinian self-determination, ho hum); rather, the fact that has such strong hereditary NDP roots at all helps. And the NDP made it easy for Manly in '19 by re-running their 3rd place byelection candidate--now they're running someone fresh, and serious; though it must be said that this was already the weakest of '15's NDP wins on Vancouver Island, and there *could* be CPC up-the-middle potential via N Nanaimo's affluent/retirement zones, even though CPC was 3rd behind the Libs in '15 (though O'Toole moderation could soak up a reasonable deal of that Manly/Liberal axis). Yeah, strange all around--and a very strong ‘lowest winning share in the country’ candidate among ridings. (Heck, combine the '15 and '19 totals and the NDP would be in front with 28.40% and less than 10 points away from the 4th-place Liberals.)
24/08/21 Mid-Islander
While Manly did get elected during the Green surge mid-2019, he didn't just get elected off the back of Elizabeth May. Nanaimo wasn't much of a Green hub before Manly ran in 2015, and he arguably had the most name recognition out of all the 2019 by-election candidates, which is why I predicted he would win back then (I was actually the first on this website to do so). He's also a VERY good campaigner. While he'll most likely be harmed by the Green Party's reduced reputation overall from the Jenica Atwin debacle, he was only tangentially involved in it, and in a way that won't lower his personal reputation in this riding. There also seems to be a trend where Green incumbents tend to improve quite a bit in the following election, probably due to potential voters not having to worry about vote splitting. While this curiously didn't happen here in the actual 2019 election, his two years in office might produce that effect this time. As for the NDP, I don't disagree that they would be the main beneficiaries from the Greens bleeding out votes. However, they really haven't improved much in the polls lately, and I'm not sure how they're ‘on the cusp of sweeping this election’. I also don't think that a school trustee is that high-profile of a candidate. Lastly, the Liberals went down 10% from their 2015 result. The 2015 Liberal candidate didn't put on a serious campaign, so most of that was from Trudeau's popularity at the time. I'd wager that most of those voters went for Manly in the by-election, and I doubt they will go back to voting Liberal again. Therefore, for the time being, I expect Manly to keep this, unless the NDP start seriously improving their polling numbers in BC.
23/08/21 jeff316
People say the funniest things sometimes. Like the idea that Green voters aren't NDP voters. Then where did that 30% drop in NDP vote from 2015 to 2019 go? Not to the Liberals, their vote dropped too. Not to the Tories, their vote stayed the same. It largely went Green.
Now, I think it will stay Green. Manly is consolidating. No one voting for him care about the shenangians going on at green HQ in Toronto. And they're old news anyway. Paul will likely have a strong debate and we'll all laugh at the NDP predictions come October.
20/08/21 GritBusters
Years ago, Manly was denied the right to run as a New Democrat because of his support for Palestinian self-determination.
I think that progressive voters will stay with him irrespective of Paul's leadership because of the circumstances under which Manly left the NDP to run Green.
Ironically, while I may sound critical of the NDP here and am making a prediction for the Greens, I will likely be voting NDP in my own riding of Hull-Aylmer.
16/08/21 Nick M.
The NDP are on the cusp of sweeping this election. And being anti pipeline wasn’t a factor. Hence it was entirely pointless assuming an anti pipeline position.
The Green MP was denied to run for the NDP for controversial views.
16/08/21 Stevo
The Green vote is NOT interchangeable with the NDP. Green voters are sometimes called ‘Tories on bikes’ - surprisingly conservative in many ways except, of course, on environmental issues. Prior to Elizabeth May, the Greens absolutely appealed centrist voters who couldn't stomach any of the main parties. So while I do think, given current Green turmoil, Paul Manley is likely to lose, I don't think one can assume the Green vote will default to the NDP. Good chance we have a 4-way race and under-30% winner.
04/08/21 LeftCoast
Easily the most interesting riding on the Island, and perhaps in all of B.C. Green incumbent Paul Manly has two wins under his belt, and has been a decent constituency MP. However, leadership struggles and factionalism will limit his chances of gaining re-election. The NDP are going hard for this seat, and have nominated a much stronger candidate this time in popular school trustee Lise Marie Barron. The Conservatives and Liberals will not be factors this time.
I flip back and forth between saying this is NDP or TCTC, but for now I think the NDP have a slight edge. If the Greens can pull it together they might just see through, but that's not looking likely at this point.
03/08/21 prognosticator15
CPC is highly unlikely to win anything on Vancouver Island and (with possible exception of North Island) the whole island is an abandoned area for them. They are unlikely to spend resources where politics has become a competition of progressivist taxpayer-funded interests, of who forces business and others better to serve their agenda. LPC also seems to abandon the area to the far left, and coordination between the Green (who would be Liberal-friendly voters elsewhere) and the NDP supporters is an established pattern here. With NDP in a much stronger position nationally, provincially and locally, and Greens having no momentum of 2019, Manly's incumbency may not be enough to prevent potential sweep of the island by the NDP, with only Saanich being competitive due to May entrenching her personal fiefdom in that area. Saanich excepting, everything Green shifts elsewhere in 2021 election (if called), to LPC in Fredericton and to NDP in Nanaimo.
01/08/21 Sam
Rather surprised to see this still listed as a Green riding rather than TCTC. Paul Manly only won with 35% of the vote last time, and given the party's internal turmoil and his role in it, he has lost credibility. If the NDP's poll numbers do translate to votes - far from guaranteed - my money's on them to take it. I don't see the second-placed Conservatives as having that chance.
30/07/21 KXS
With the current state of the Green Party, this riding will likely return to the NDP.
27/07/21 Dr Bear
Given the current Gong Show set in a dumpster fire next to a train wreck that is the current Green Party, this seat is definitely TCTC. If the NDP get a good candidate, then they will retake this seat for sure. A mediocre candidate (or a mediocre campaign by the NDP) could even see a vote split, allowing the CPC to come up the middle (unlikely with current CPC polling but things could change).
21/07/21 Thomas K
I think this is too early to call--it would be a mistake to characterize this as a Green stronghold. When considering the current turmoil the Green party is enduring, and Paul Manly's relative proximity to the turmoil, this could be interesting to watch. Manly was kicked from the NDP over the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Green party's conflict seems to be bizarrely centered on Israel, which could easily associate Manly with the Green conflict, which is not a particularly flattering nor electable look right now.
He won by 35% last time, it could be close between the NDP and the Greens.
01/07/21 Libby Burgundy
I have to say, I feel like people are counting this chicken before it hatches. With only 35% of the vote, even if the Greens win back every single voter they had last time, they are still very vulnerable to shifts in support between the other parties -- and with the turmoil at Green headquarters, I wouldn't take it for granted that their support will hold up.
Mind you, if Annamie Paul resigns and Elizabeth May takes over to lead the party through the election, Manly's odds will improve considerably.
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Paul Manly se représente. Dans une lutte à 3 ou 4, comme c'est habituellement le cas sur l'île de Vancouver, le député sortant possède un avantage. Des sites comme Canada338 et Tooclosetocall le donnent gagnant par une marge similaire à 2019. Victoire des Verts ici.

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