Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-04 19:08:15

Constituency Profile


Boychuk, Rayna

Chang, Michael

Farstad, Kaija

Richter, Kim

Van Popta, Tako


Tako Van Popta

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



374.03 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tako Van Popta 2982347.00%
Leon Jensen 1625425.60%
Stacey Wakelin 1069016.80%
Kaija Farstad 48817.70%
Natalie Dipietra-Cudmore 13052.10%
Alex Joehl 4990.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mark Warawa ** 2733345.60%
Leon Jensen 2189436.60%
Margot Sangster 749012.50%
Simmi Saminder Kaur Dhillon 26444.40%
Lauren Southern 5350.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2640.59%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.37% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 ReubenJames
Things you never expected could come true Monday - like a Liberal win in Langley-Abbotsford. The aftermath of the horrible Alberta Covid crisis — which has tarred CPC leader O’Toole almost as badly as inept AB premier — has rocked the Conservative campaign, and created a deflating narrative that MPs like Takla Van Popta can’t combat in the remaining hours. O’Toole’s ambivalent vaccine plan hasn’t satisfied the anti-vaxxers, while left the majority of adults wondering if he can lead. The demographics of the riding are strong blue, but newer suburbs in both communities, including Aldergrove, can skew in any direction. Popta hasn’t wowed anyone and the PPC’s Rayna Boychuk and Grit Kim Richter, a 7-time Langley councillor will benefit, with Richter’s experience giving her the best shot to shock the pollsters. You read it here first.
31/08/21 R.O.
Tako Van Popta was first elected in 2019 so not that well known but this suburban riding has been conservative for a long time so likely hold for cpc.
25/08/21 A.S.
Were Van Popta's maiden margin more like Mark Warawa's swan song margin, I'd be more willing to no-prediction this--then again, maybe he benefited from a posthumous sympathy factor; but the way in which he nearly swept the polls (even in the westernmost, most latently ‘Lib-friendly’ parts) was almost like '15 and Justinmania never happened. I'd *probably* expect something more '15-like this time, particularly in light of provincial NDP gains--maybe even a sub-40% share--but nothing at loss-level.
16/08/21 JCox
This seat is going for the tories but I wouldn't be surprised if eventually this becomes a swing riding. The provincial NDP did well here and at some point it may turn towards the liberals.
21/07/21 Thomas K
I expect this to stay Conservative, though by a noticeably smaller margin than last time. The Conservatives are polling poorly in BC, but more significantly, this riding is gradually undergoing changes as more Vancouverites move out to Langley due to housing affordability, bringing their more progressive values with them. The evangelical right, which is generally strong in this riding, is gradually disintegrating, and unless that CPC changes strategies, so will their vote share.
30/06/21 Negative Inference
This is part of bible belt. Easy conservative reelection.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster