Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-07 13:02:52

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Sarah

Goldsbury, Robin

Morrison, Rob

Nelson, Rana

Stetski, Wayne


Rob Morrison

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



63419.81 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rob Morrison 3016844.80%
Wayne Stetski ** 2314934.40%
Robin Goldsbury 61519.10%
Abra Brynne 61459.10%
Rick Stewart 13782.00%
Trev Miller 3390.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Wayne Stetski 2352937.20%
David Wilks ** 2324736.80%
Don Johnston 1231519.50%
Bill Green 41156.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6091.15%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (78.72% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (21.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 ReubenJames
Having lived and worked in the area (Elkford) and with relatives there, the Kootenays-Columbia is typically an independent conservative riding. They’ve elected their share of ramrods who often bucked their own parties’ code of conduct — provincially, mavericks Corky Evans-NDP and Bill Bennett-BC Liberal. The union base which carried Sid Parker and more recently Wayne Stetski in 2015 to Ottawa is dwindling in influence. There is a strong environmental group of people who make this a typical 2-way fight. As noted by others, Liberal Robin Goldsbury is garnering more signs of support, and not just in her base of Creston-to-Cranbrook. She could steal enough votes off of Stetsky to allow Rob Morrison to earn a second term. Voters in this riding are independent and unpredictable so this is right now a tough one to call.
18/09/21 Dr Bear
I was in Revelstoke recently and I can concur that the Liberals do have a strong presence this time. I can not speak of elsewhere in the riding, but I would imagine that the Liberals are working hard all over. As to how it will affect the NDP vote, it could be an effect, yet I think PPC votes being taken from the CPC will have a greater affect on the outcome. This seat will be close.
16/09/21 Old School
While it is true that the PPC may take some of the Con votes, the Liberal, Robin Goldsworthy, is running a much stronger campaign than in 2019, and may well take some of the Dipper vote - at best, the PPC and Liberal encroachments into the Con and Dipper vote will be a wash, but likely, the NDP have more to worry about than the Cons.
16/09/21 I’m here
Fact the NDP vote didn’t change in last several elections and won’t this time. Give the PPC way too many votes (they are punching above their weight) and the green vote has melted into the NDP and this might not be very close.
15/09/21 Physastr Master
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that due to the PPC surge this will go NDP. I know a few people from the Kootenays and the sense I get from them is that the type of right-wing people in this riding might make it very PPC-vulnerable. People I know from the Kootenays have spoken of some parts of it as an extension of the politically problematic Idaho Kootenay, which is known for strong white supremacist roots. Now don't get me wrong, the Kootenays in BC aren't a hotbed of white supremacy, but there does seem to be a bit of a leakover of that flavor of populist right politics here, and that seems to be reflected in low vaccination rates. This is especially true in Creston, a town that voted heavily conservative last election and happens to have one of the lowest vaccination rates in the province. Given how much the PPC are stressing opposing vaccine mandates and lockdowns, I expect a lot of PPC votes in the area, and likely elsewhere in the riding too. Will it be enough to make it go NDP? Maybe not, but I give it like a 60% chance of working. I'm not exactly confident, but if I was a betting man, I'd put money on the NDP.
12/09/20 Dr Bear
Polling has the CPC down four point while the NDP are up six points in BC relative to 2019 (the Liberals up one point so mostly unchanged). The Greens have lost half of their support and are tied with the PPC with about 6% each. Considering these numbers, and considering that a chunk of the PPC support comes from the CPC, I am reiterating my TCTC prediction.
10/09/21 Sam
There's still scope for the NDP to slightly close the gap, but not by enough - and certainly not off the back of Stetski's previous incumbency. Though it's worth mentioning the neighbouring provincial riding didn't go NDP either - perhaps the unwillingness to vote NDP (as opposed to the 2015 Liberals) outside of certain areas is more than a uniform swing would give it credit for.
06/09/21 R.O.
This riding is a rematch of the 2019 election except Rob Morrison is now the incumbent and former ndp mp Wayne Stetski a candidate. True the ndp won here in 2015 but that was the anti harper election and they only won by a tiny margin that year. By 2019 as things returned to normal even with an ndp incumbent and rookie cpc candidate it went cpc by 10 %. Polls do show the ndp doing well in BC but is that in more urban parts to the province compared to the rural interior ridings. whats also interesting is prior to 2015 the cpc or alliance had never got less than 50 % of the vote in this riding so it had been a very strong area for them.
25/08/21 A.S.
I'll still treat this as being in play, simply because the Nelson/Revelstoke Dipper intensity is so blinding (and also, the NDP *isn't* way down from '15 levels, at least when it comes to e-day levels). However, there is something a bit perverse about Stetski running again in the aftermath of his having utterly flopped in 2020 in the provincial Kootenay East (‘you're a former MP? Yeah, well, whatever’)
19/08/21 Walnut
With the NDP-friendly areas of the Kootenays split between this riding and 'South Okanagan—West Kootenay', the Conservatives are favoured to win but they cannot take it for granted. The NDP has a strong base here that will deliver votes and, as seen in 2015, these Conservatives are susceptible losing votes to a strong Liberal candidate. However, as Goldsbury is not bringing in soft conservative-ish votes and Morrison not actively driving voters away, this riding will see the same outcome in 2021 as it did in 2019.
16/08/21 Dr Bear
Another Conservative held seat that should be listed TCTC. The NDP won this seat in 2015 when they had 26% to the CPC’s 30% in BC. Both parties are now polling around 27% in BC. Yes, I know that Mulcair was a better fit for the BC interior than Singh is (one had a real plan to govern while the other is pie-in-the-sky), but if these numbers hold, this seat will be in play.
12/07/21 MBD
This will probably be the main target for the NDP in BC's interior. Looks like their former MP is running again. Downside for the NDP is they didn't pick-up seats in the Kootenays in the last provincial election. Too close to call.
04/06/21 Libby Burgundy
One of the old hard-core Reform/Alliance ridings, while K-C did elect a New Democrat in 2015, this turned out to be something of a wild fling, perhaps partially motivated by the incumbent Conservative's dubious position on the Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls inquiry -- something unusually relevant in this part of the world.
With the NDP way down from their 2015 levels and with the Liberals and NDP scaling down their rural campaigning in favour of suburban and urban fights, we should see a reversion to form here.

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