Election Prediction Project

Kelowna-Lake Country
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-22 20:07:31

Constituency Profile


Desjarlais, Cade

Gray, Tracy

Krupa, Tim

Rogers, Brian

Szeman, Imre


Tracy Gray

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1566.95 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tracy Gray 3149745.60%
Stephen Fuhr ** 2262732.70%
Justin Kulik 838112.10%
Travis Ashley 51717.50%
John Barr 12251.80%
Daniel Joseph 1520.20%
Silverado Socrates 670.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Stephen Fuhr 2961446.20%
Ron Cannan ** 2550239.80%
Norah Mary Bowman 903914.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kelowna-Lake Country
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 R.O.
Former liberal mp Stephen Fuhr is not back as the liberal candidate , its someone new named Tim Krupa . riding has grown a lot but most view the 2015 liberal win as a fluke in a riding that has otherwise voted conservative or for parties on the right. I would expect mp Tracy Gray to hold this one .
25/08/21 A.S.
Remember that a big factor behind Fuhr's '15 victory was the Greens standing down and giving him their endorsement (which resulted in this being a nearly unique race that year w/only 3 candidates). Though I do agree that said victory signals a longer-term generic shift t/w moderation within Kelowna--however at this point, to *really* be re-winnable by the Libs, it'd have to be a more squarely ‘central’ riding and swap some of the peripheral parts for the SC Kelowna ‘thumb’ presently within COSN.
22/08/21 Stevo
Seems to happen every election cycle for the past 20 years. Polls show the Liberals surging in BC early in the campaign but it never seems to come to fruition on election day, with the exception of 2015. I personally see higher likelihood of the Liberals coming in 3rd in BC (their traditional place) than 1st. They will not retake an Interior seat with a prior 13-point margin. Conservative hold.
19/08/21 NDP Hack
I expect this to be a contested riding between the CPC and Liberals. The Green Party has acclaimed a University of Waterloo professor with no roots to the riding. The NDP has nominated a second year university student at UBCO similar to 2019. Tracy Gray voted against the bill to ban conversion therapy which has earned her the distinction of being banned from Kelowna Pride events in September. I do not consider this to be a significant factor as the LBGTQ community is not known to be a CPC bastion of support with its faction of social conservative values. Tim Krupa will provide a serious challenge to TG. He is an Oxford University graduate, and has working experience in the Harvard Business School and Trudeau's PMO. Like Stephen Fuhr in 2015, he will likely earn much of the support of the UBCO staff and student body. Liberal Party support in BC is currently higher than in 2019, and CPC has declined. I would view this as a toss up.
09/08/21 Sam
I'm not sure I agree with the notion that only a blue Grit could win here - Stephen Fuhr was a very good candidate without being a noted blue Grit and that masks how his victory was essentially to do with Liberals doing rather well in the BC Interior in 2015. Now that support has tumbled down, and even with polls showing the Conservatives down here, it would take quite a big effort for the Liberals to recreate their 2015 victory. Ultimately the path to majority government doesn't lie here anymore and I'm not sure down the line that it will be seriously contested.
01/08/21 Dr Bear
For what it’s worth, 338 Canada has this seat listed as a tossup with the Liberals ahead by two points.
30/07/21 Lolitha
This riding showed large swings in 2015 and 2019. Given this history, I believe Too Close To Call is a reasonable rating to start with, as both the Liberals and Conservatives have a shot of winning here depending on how the campaign goes.
06/08/21 Thomas K
Kelowna-Lake Country: the land of Christy Clark soccer moms, wealthy seniors, and the wine ?industry?. It would take a blue grit to appeal to this riding, and that appeal is not going to happen for the Liberals this year. CPC hold.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster