Election Prediction Project

Fleetwood-Port Kells
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-17 09:25:27

Constituency Profile


Birring, Amrit

DeNure, Perry

Hardie, Ken

Hayer, Dave

Krishnan, Murali

Toor, Raji


Ken Hardie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



69.60 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ken Hardie ** 1840137.60%
Shinder Purewal 1651833.80%
Annie Ohana 1053321.50%
Tanya Baertl 23604.80%
Mike Poulin 10932.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ken Hardie 2287146.90%
Nina Grewal ** 1427529.30%
Garry Begg 1046321.50%
Richard Hosein 11542.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3060.88%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (92.37% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Surrey North
   (7.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Jake H.
I still think this one is TCTC.
The Liberal candidate is returning but isn't a hugely popular MP. The other party's candidates are all new. This bodes well for the Liberals. However, based on the ‘lawn signs’ war and word of mouth, they don't seem to be eliciting much excitement or expanding their vote past their base. It very much seems like a ‘not the other guy’ riding as opposed to a ‘this guy’ riding...
As others have pointed out, the PPC will peel off more votes from the Cons than they did in 2019, the Liberals are holding off the Cons, and the NDP are gaining support but barring some kind of miracle (or horrendous polling) they won't be able to take this seat... But I don't think that necessarily adds up to a Liberal win. The real question I have isn't ‘will the NDP win’, it's ‘will the NDP peel away enough Liberal votes to make a difference’. I think the Libs will lose more votes to the NDP and Greens (and yes, some to the PPC as well) than the Cons will to the PPC. Enough to make a difference? I'm not sure. But I do think this one is still TCTC.
17/09/21 R.O.
Not sure about this one , Dave Heyer is one of the cpc’s higher profile non incumbent bc candidates as he had been a provincial mla. The cpc candidate in this riding in 2019 was virtually unknown yet they came in a close second. Otoole also visited this riding when he was in bc earlier in the campaign. Not to mention the ndp are also a factor in this area and polling well in BC. Riding has a swing history so races here are often unpredictable.
17/09/21 Raven
The vote difference for LIB to CON in 2019 was around 2k votes. That is basically 1-2 votes at each ballot. By kinetics, the LIB will probably continue to go down like in 2019. At best, the LIB will just keep their vote total steady. However, having nominated a former MLA as the CON candidate, they do stand a chance to gain 1k vote to flip the riding. As for the NDP, there will be no NDP to LIB vote to save the LIB. Their 15 and 19 vote total is their base. Whereas there will be some LIB to NDP vote that will make the CON come out the middle.
16/09/21 Physastr Master
The Liberals are pretty stable in BC and the conservatives are dropping, so the net movement is back to the Liberals. I don't think this riding is prime for PPC overperformance, but they will still peel off a bit of Conservative support, probably making the Liberal safe. The NDP have the better movement in the province, but they're too far back here. Liberal Hold
12/09/20 Dr Bear
CPC are polling down four points in BC relative to 2019 with the Libs polling up one. I think this is staying red.
03/09/21 R.O.
Ken Hardie was first elected in this riding in 2015 when he beat long time cpc mp Nina Grewal. The riding had been conservative for some time although still considered to be a suburban swing riding due to its close races and history. Conservatives found a new candidate this year Dave Hayer a former BC liberal mla for the area. The ndp are running a new candidate Raji Toor and also do well in the area . so little early to predict this one.
25/08/21 A.S.
Of course, one thing that *could* put Dave Hayer over the top parallels what arguably ‘stole’ Cloverdale-Langley City from the Liberals in '19: an overactive NDP thyroid--and any seat where they got over 20% is ‘to be watched’, particularly if it's the kind of seat they commonly (if futilely) targeted in pre-Justin days. As it now stands, the Trans-Canada is the rough demarcation line: Fraser Heights in the N being more Con-leaning, the balance being more Lib-leaning. And more of the growth is within, or on behalf of, Lib-leaning areas. Which could also be ‘Millennial Jagmeet-leaning’.
14/08/21 Sam
It's worth noting the CPC have a semi-star candidate in former local MLA David Hayer. Though he will keep the CPC competitive, the national numbers will bring him down - his best chance was in 2019. Either an uptick in fortunes or a good level of vote splitting is the only thing that might get him elected - possible, but not likely.
22/07/21 Thomas K
With the Liberals targeting seats in Vancouver's Eastern suburubs, and a comfortable margin of victory in 2019, the Liberals should be able to hold this.

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