Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:16:06

Constituency Profile


DeLong, Alana

Hecht, Mark

Herbert, Blair

MacGregor, Alistair

Versaevel, Lia


Alistair MacGregor

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4556.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Alistair MacGregor ** 2351936.10%
Alana DeLong 1695926.00%
Lydia Hwitsum 1318120.20%
Blair Herbert 1030115.80%
Rhonda Chen 10661.60%
Robin Morton Stanbridge 2020.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alistair MacGregor 2220035.90%
Luke Krayenhoff 1468523.80%
Martin Barker 1409122.80%
Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi 1046216.90%
Alastair Haythornthwaite 3400.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1530.32%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
   (32.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/09/21 Thomas K
With the Greens falling apart, the NDP will further their stranglehold over the Vancouver Island ridings.
26/08/21 Walnut
This should be a competitive race but it is not. Coastal communities crave Green sensibilities and Langford is booming with new suburban developments benefiting from the Liberal's housing initiatives (e.g. first-time home-buyers incentives, low interest rates). But MacGregor dominates the field. He is not very exciting but his experience and professionalism show. Until the other parties can nominate more exciting candidates, the NDP with MacGregor will win here.
25/08/21 A.S.
Given the low winning share, might be inside-out calling this and not Courtenay-Alberni for the Dippers; however, CPC is weaker, and Green *was* (note past tense) stronger. And Liberal inherently stronger, too, particularly out suburban Langford way. So my rationale is: Courtenay's binary, Cowichan's opposition-fragmented.
Easy NDP win, despite a pretty low-profile incumbent in Alistair MacGregor. Both BC NDP leader (and Premier) John Horgan and BC Green leader Sonia Furstenau are Mr. MacGregor's constituents, but the Greens will have a hard-time building momentum to be competitive here, especially with the latest leadership drama as well as the riding containing decidedly 'un-Green' communities such as Langford. This historically NDP riding will stay in their column.
22/05/21 ME
This riding is a safe NDP seat according to 338

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