Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:16:01

Constituency Profile


Biley, Barbara

Eppich, Robert

Farlinger, Susan

Johns, Gord

Lawson, Susanne

Lee, Mary


Gord Johns

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7912.75 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Gord Johns ** 2979041.20%
Byron Horner 2393633.10%
Sean Wood 976213.50%
Jonah Baden Gowans 862011.90%
Barbara Biley 1720.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gord Johns 2658238.10%
John Duncan ** 1971428.20%
Carrie Powell-Davidson 1521221.80%
Glenn Sollitt 820111.70%
Barbara Biley 1400.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4800.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.84% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Vancouver Island North
   (31.16% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 A.S.
Perhaps a superficial explanation for the Johns-Blaney ‘swap’ might be through how Johns, unlike Blaney, faced a CPC incumbent in '15. And re the 3-way-race ‘could be’: actually, this was the weakest VI riding for the Greens last time, largely due to the Alberni-centric resource economy. So, two-way it was, and two-way it shall remain--and in fact, that Parksville-Qualicum spectrum is actually leaving me wondering if, in an O'Toole-in-front circumstance, there *might* be unforeseen danger for Gord Johns on the horizon. Which is why I'm withholding a prediction...for now.
20/08/21 Walnut
This has been a Conservative-NDP battleground riding over the years and could become a three way race like neighbouring Nanaimo—Ladysmith with the Greens in the future. But Johns has been the green NDP cross-over candidate that has, so far, avoided that.
17/08/21 Laurence Putnam
Opportunity for the Conservatives here was last go around with a flailing NDP campaign, a surging Green Party and the Tories on the upswing (at least in the West).
That was then, this is now. Gord Johns should be safe.
15/08/21 Sam
Interesting that Johns and Blaney swapped performances from 2015 to 2019 - though not really significant in predicting the final outcome. This was despite the CPC candidate being a very hard worker here.
Provincially all of this riding's territory is now NDP, and even though the CPC will still gain a lot of votes in places like Parksville, they'll struggle here - they would have to rack up votes there to counter the rest of the riding. So long as the NDP isn't having a meltdown in BC, Johns will easily see another victory here.
04/08/21 LeftCoast
Gord Johns is a popular and high-profile incumbent, and strong NDP areas (such as Courtenay and Port Alberni) still out-number strong Conservative areas (such as Parksville and Qualicum). NDP win.
22/05/21 ME
This riding is a safe NDP riding according to 338

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