Aldag, John
	Jansen, Tamara
	Jayaprakash, Rajesh
	Kennedy, Ian
Incumbent:
	Tamara Jansen

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			117640 100318 45122 43082 59.47 km² 1978.30/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Tamara Jansen	20936	37.70%
	John Aldag **	19542	35.20%
	Rae Banwarie	10508	18.90%
	Caelum Nutbrown	3572	6.40%
	Ian Kennedy	930	1.70%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	John Aldag	24617	45.50%
	Dean Drysdale	18800	34.80%
	Rebecca Smith	8463	15.70%
	Scott Anderson	2195	4.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		21598	57.38%
		9288	24.68%
		4442	11.80%
		1738	4.62%
Other		580	1.54%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale    (37.11% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Langley    (33.47% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Fleetwood-Port Kells    (29.42% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	14/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Just noticed there was a new mainstreet poll for this riding and it shows the incumbent ahead. 41 cpc Tamara Jensen , 29 John Aldag liberal , 17 ndp. https://ipolitics.ca/2021/09/13/two-key-seats-in-western-canada-appear-safely-conservative/
	13/09/21	George 104.232.37.97
Mainstreet has a decent Conservative lead, 41 Con to 29 Liberal among decided voters. https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CloverdaleLangley-iPolitics-13September2021-1.pdf
	06/09/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
Probably will be the only Liberal pickup in BC. The Green vote will probably go to the Liberals here, considering Aldag is a generally inoffensive contrast to Tamara Jansen's strident homophobia and evangelical pro-life drivel.
	05/09/21	Dr Bear 72.143.215.13
Wait a second! Everyone is talking about how well the CPC are doing in B.C. and how poorly the Liberals are doing. Wrong! At the moment both parties are polling about the same as they did in 2019 (34% CPC and 26% LPC). The party that is doing better is the NDP at the expense of the Greens. There isn’t a Green candidate in this riding, so 6% of the vote is freed up. While most of that, I think, will got NDP, there is some going Liberal, and in a close race that could bring this seat over the top for the Liberals. TCTC!
	03/09/21	SG 174.4.15.4
In BC, the Conservatives and NDP are ascendant. The Liberals are in decline. The Liberals are in a struggle to maintain some of the seats they already have, never mind gaining new ones. Can't see this one flipping. The incumbent will probably have a larger margin of victory than in 2019.
	02/09/21	Nick M. 64.254.28.11
The CPC is the incumbent party for this riding. As such the Progressive vote doesn't have a definite choice. And with the NDP polling ahead of LPC provincially, the NDP vote will be natural progressive vote, taking too many votes away from the LPC for the LPC to win. Victory Conservatives.
	26/08/21	Walnut 184.66.107.187
Looks like I picked the wrong winner in 2019 but I stand by that analysis. Since the same candidates are running again that analysis remains true and this riding will go to either the Conservative or Liberal candidate. As mentioned by others below, Jansen is a social-conservative crusader who speaks her mind. National parties don't like when a candidate goes off-message and doesn't toe the party line because it results in ambiguous messaging and lack of confidence on where they stand on the issue. Jansen went all-in on the conversion therapy issue to the extent that O'Toole had to distance himself from her views. While social-conservative outspokenness may be fine in Langley—Aldergrove or Chilliwack, I don't see Surrey and City of Langley there. Especially when she is contrasted to the more careful Aldag, I think Liberals have more broad appeal in this riding. That's why I think Aldag should win this one but that's what I thought in 2019 and I was wrong then. (and just to clarify, I don't think a generic Liberal candidate could win here. Aldag was a good find by the Liberals).
	25/08/21	A.S. 45.41.168.91
Because this was such an eastern-frontier-of-Greater-Vancouver shock Lib pickup in '15, I'm wondering whether '19 was some kind of momentary hair-trigger recoil--and it's also worth noting that the NDP gained more over '15 than Jansen's margin of victory, so split-in-the-left-elected-a-Conservative, blablabla. And with the demographics that elected Aldag continuing to inch eastward and Jansen being such a reminder of what made the CPC label seemingly toxic going into the present election, there's a reason why I'm referring to '19, rather than '15, in terms of momentary hair-triggers. And provincially speaking, while in '19 this was mostly BC Liberal, in '21 it's mostly BC NDP.
	25/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Tamara Jensen was first elected in 2019 and not a well known mp. But riding itself is in suburban BC and a long time conservative area other than 2015 when liberals held it and John Aldag mp. But feel it be tougher for liberals to recapture the seat than it be for conservatives to hold especially this year.
	22/07/21	Garth 50.117.233.151
Most polls are showing Conservative vote down in BC. If the election is held soon, it is likely this seat would swing to the Liberals.
	21/07/21	Thomas K 24.85.228.170
The Liberals are targeting this seat already with announcements like the Langley Skytrain. The current MP, Tamara Jansen, his a relatively outspoken social conservative which will likely even seep its way into the federal discourse as a criticism of O'Toole's candidates. Was very marginal last time, and with Conservative support dipping to 3rd place in BC, the Liberals should be able to pick this up by a 5% margin.