Election Prediction Project

Cloverdale-Langley City
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-13 23:03:15

Constituency Profile


Aldag, John

Jansen, Tamara

Jayaprakash, Rajesh

Kennedy, Ian


Tamara Jansen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



59.47 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tamara Jansen 2093637.70%
John Aldag ** 1954235.20%
Rae Banwarie 1050818.90%
Caelum Nutbrown 35726.40%
Ian Kennedy 9301.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

John Aldag 2461745.50%
Dean Drysdale 1880034.80%
Rebecca Smith 846315.70%
Scott Anderson 21954.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5801.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
   (37.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (33.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fleetwood-Port Kells
   (29.42% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 R.O.
Just noticed there was a new mainstreet poll for this riding and it shows the incumbent ahead. 41 cpc Tamara Jensen , 29 John Aldag liberal , 17 ndp.
13/09/21 George
Mainstreet has a decent Conservative lead, 41 Con to 29 Liberal among decided voters.
06/09/21 Thomas K
Probably will be the only Liberal pickup in BC. The Green vote will probably go to the Liberals here, considering Aldag is a generally inoffensive contrast to Tamara Jansen's strident homophobia and evangelical pro-life drivel.
05/09/21 Dr Bear
Wait a second! Everyone is talking about how well the CPC are doing in B.C. and how poorly the Liberals are doing. Wrong! At the moment both parties are polling about the same as they did in 2019 (34% CPC and 26% LPC). The party that is doing better is the NDP at the expense of the Greens. There isn’t a Green candidate in this riding, so 6% of the vote is freed up. While most of that, I think, will got NDP, there is some going Liberal, and in a close race that could bring this seat over the top for the Liberals. TCTC!
03/09/21 SG
In BC, the Conservatives and NDP are ascendant. The Liberals are in decline. The Liberals are in a struggle to maintain some of the seats they already have, never mind gaining new ones. Can't see this one flipping. The incumbent will probably have a larger margin of victory than in 2019.
02/09/21 Nick M.
The CPC is the incumbent party for this riding. As such the Progressive vote doesn't have a definite choice. And with the NDP polling ahead of LPC provincially, the NDP vote will be natural progressive vote, taking too many votes away from the LPC for the LPC to win. Victory Conservatives.
26/08/21 Walnut
Looks like I picked the wrong winner in 2019 but I stand by that analysis. Since the same candidates are running again that analysis remains true and this riding will go to either the Conservative or Liberal candidate.
As mentioned by others below, Jansen is a social-conservative crusader who speaks her mind. National parties don't like when a candidate goes off-message and doesn't toe the party line because it results in ambiguous messaging and lack of confidence on where they stand on the issue. Jansen went all-in on the conversion therapy issue to the extent that O'Toole had to distance himself from her views. While social-conservative outspokenness may be fine in Langley—Aldergrove or Chilliwack, I don't see Surrey and City of Langley there. Especially when she is contrasted to the more careful Aldag, I think Liberals have more broad appeal in this riding. That's why I think Aldag should win this one but that's what I thought in 2019 and I was wrong then. (and just to clarify, I don't think a generic Liberal candidate could win here. Aldag was a good find by the Liberals).
25/08/21 A.S.
Because this was such an eastern-frontier-of-Greater-Vancouver shock Lib pickup in '15, I'm wondering whether '19 was some kind of momentary hair-trigger recoil--and it's also worth noting that the NDP gained more over '15 than Jansen's margin of victory, so split-in-the-left-elected-a-Conservative, blablabla. And with the demographics that elected Aldag continuing to inch eastward and Jansen being such a reminder of what made the CPC label seemingly toxic going into the present election, there's a reason why I'm referring to '19, rather than '15, in terms of momentary hair-triggers. And provincially speaking, while in '19 this was mostly BC Liberal, in '21 it's mostly BC NDP.
25/08/21 R.O.
Tamara Jensen was first elected in 2019 and not a well known mp. But riding itself is in suburban BC and a long time conservative area other than 2015 when liberals held it and John Aldag mp. But feel it be tougher for liberals to recapture the seat than it be for conservatives to hold especially this year.
22/07/21 Garth
Most polls are showing Conservative vote down in BC. If the election is held soon, it is likely this seat would swing to the Liberals.
21/07/21 Thomas K
The Liberals are targeting this seat already with announcements like the Langley Skytrain. The current MP, Tamara Jansen, his a relatively outspoken social conservative which will likely even seep its way into the federal discourse as a criticism of O'Toole's candidates. Was very marginal last time, and with Conservative support dipping to 3rd place in BC, the Liberals should be able to pick this up by a 5% margin.

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