Election Prediction Project

Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:57:13

Constituency Profile


Albas, Dan

Eves, Sarah

Mcdonald, Kathryn

Phillip, Joan

Wauters, Brennan


Dan Albas

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



15984.90 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Dan Albas ** 3113547.90%
Mary Ann Murphy 1625225.00%
Joan Phillip 1090416.80%
Robert Mellalieu 50867.80%
Allan Duncan 13452.10%
Jesse Regier 2130.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dan Albas ** 2451739.60%
Karley Scott 2305937.20%
Angelique Wood 1196119.30%
Robert Mellalieu 24363.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 7541.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kelowna-Lake Country
   (23.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   British Columbia Southern Interior
   (9.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 A.S.
The '15 result was indeed startling--and in the more recent times when the Cons were polling around a quarter of the vote nationally on a seemingly ‘toxic’ brand, it could even have served as a foundation for the what-could-happen present. Which'd be much less likely now. (A subtle, overlooked detail: as a ‘moderating’ element, the riding includes SC Kelowna. Take that away, and the Cons would be above 50% at large.)
23/08/21 R.O.
Long time conservative riding in the interior of BC , current mp Dan Albas was first elected in 2011 and well known in the area by now .
22/08/21 Stevo
Really shows the magnitude of Trudeau's ‘grandson of BC’ surge in 2015 that the Liberals came within 2 points of taking Stockwell Day's old riding (mostly; there's been quite a bit of redistribution since then). As elsewhere in Western Canada, it was ‘back to normal’ in 2019 and I expect that to hold for this election. Worth noting that parts of this area did go NDP in the 2020 provincial election so it isn't ultra-safe territory for right-leaning parties.
04/06/21 Libby Burgundy
The Conservatives held onto this seat even as the Liberals managed a regional breakthrough in 2015, and they got about twice as many votes as the second-place party in 2019. While this seat isn't nearly as secure as some of its neighbours, absent compelling indications to the contrary, we should be assuming the trendline will continue.

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