Election Prediction Project

Cariboo-Prince George
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:57:03

Constituency Profile


Doherty, Todd

Frizzell, Garth

Gustafson, Jeremy

Hunsinger-Chang, Leigh

McKinnon, Audrey

Thiessen, Henry


Todd Doherty

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



83018.97 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Todd Doherty ** 2884852.70%
Tracy Calogheros 1093220.00%
Heather Sapergia 844015.40%
Mackenzie Kerr 49989.10%
Jing Lan Yang 12062.20%
Michael Orr 3500.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Todd Doherty 1968836.60%
Tracy Calogheros 1692131.50%
Trent Derrick 1387925.80%
Richard Edward Jaques 18603.50%
Sheldon Clare 6571.20%
Gordon Campbell 4020.70%
Adam De Kroon 3270.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 10332.39%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Cariboo-Prince George
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

This is a safe seat for the Conservatives.
Todd Doherty is a well respected and hard working MP
25/08/21 A.S.
Riffing off '19 rather than '15, I wouldn't brush this off as being not nearly as secure as some of its neighbours--in fact, the only more secure CPC seat in the BC Interior was the the *other* Prince George seat (and, with its also being the Peace River seat, it had every reason to be). And indeed, for this seat to see the same Lib candidate tumble from a 5-point gap to just under 20% (and for the NDP to *also* tumble over 10 points) was one of the most dramatic reversals on behalf of the Cons *anywhere* in BC. Prince George itself might make for a competitive riding; but it's its misfortune to be split--and for that matter, to be of the ‘interior’ and hence ever more remote from potential right-of-centre representation. (Even provincially last time, both Prince George ridings remained majority BCLiberal, i.e. Conservative proxy.)
13/08/21 R.O.
Long time conservative riding although current mp Todd Doherty first elected in 2015. This is a rural bc riding and would expect it to stay with the conservatives .
04/06/21 Libby Burgundy
The Conservatives held onto this seat even as the Liberals managed a regional breakthrough in 2015, and they got more than twice as many votes as the second-place party in 2019. While this seat isn't nearly as secure as some of its neighbours, absent compelling indications to the contrary, we should be assuming the trendline will continue.

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