Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 16:59:26

Constituency Profile


Fast, Ed

Fowler, Stephen

Gill, Navreen

Sinclair, Kevin

yakandawela, dharmasena


Ed Fast

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



175.34 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ed Fast ** 2516251.40%
Seamus Heffernan 1056021.60%
Madeleine Sauve 825716.90%
Stephen Fowler 37027.60%
Locke Duncan 9852.00%
Aeriol Alderking 2700.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ed Fast ** 2322948.30%
Peter Njenga 1577732.80%
Jen Martel 659313.70%
Stephen Fowler 24165.00%
David MacKay 1090.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1950.52%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 A.S.
The ‘subsumed by the Vancouver orbit’ element includes a Lib-leaning ethnoburban aspect, particularly in the Townline Hill area to the W. Let's face it, the glory days of Abbotsford as some kind of unbreachable Fraser Valley Bible Belt metropolis are long past, it's still Conservative but ‘diversifying’, and both of its provincial BC Liberal seats were won with less than 10-point margins last time around. Yet let's *also* face it; after losing it in '15, the Cons reattained their majority in '19--the only other BC CPC majorities being the Prince George pair. So for now, Conservative is a good, sturdy, sensible big-tent parking lot, maybe in more of an ‘urban Albertan’ way than a Jesusland way at this point. (And besides, more of that Abbotsford Lib-ethnoburbia alluded to in Townline Hill is N of the riding boundary: it's what unexpectedly propelled MMFC into the Liberal column in '15.)
19/08/21 R.O.
Ed Fast has been mp of this riding since 2006 in what is a long time conservative area of BC and would expect that to continue .
27/07/21 LeftCoast
One of the safest Tory seats in B.C., with a popular and high-profile incumbent to boot. Easy Conservative hold.
28/06/21 Lolitha
Both 338 and Leantossup have Abbotsford as a safe Con seat (99% plus probability), so it seems reasonable to start with that!
25/06/21 Stevo
If I'm not mistaken, this was the Alliance's best BC seat in 2000 (on par with rural Alberta, never mind Calgary) and one of the best throughout the Harper era. Since then it has been subsumed by the Vancouver orbit, similar to Barrie/Orillia in relation to Toronto. We're probably still 10 years away from it being a potential battleground if the current trajectory continues.

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