Election Prediction Project

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Genuis, Garnett

Holm, Tanya

Newberry, Todd

Perris, Sheldon Jonah

Simpson, Charles

Theroux, Aidan Bradley

Wetterstrand, John


Garnett Genuis

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1230.95 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Garnett Genuis ** 5360073.40%
Aidan Theroux 886712.10%
Ron Thiering 735710.10%
Laura Sanderson 15922.20%
Darren Villetard 13341.80%
Patrick McElrea 3000.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Garnett Genuis 4264263.90%
Rod Frank 1361520.40%
Joanne Cave 65409.80%
Brandie Harrop 16482.50%
James Ford 15632.30%
Stephen C. Burry 6781.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1448628.79%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (78.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (21.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

23/08/21 A.S.
I labelled Genuis a ‘personable young rookie’ in '19; and then he had to go on and be one of the more aggressive caucus socons. But it doesn't make him endangered--it's funny, though, how being on the far side of the inner-Edmonton ‘urban boundary’ can make all of the electoral difference; so St. Albert, usually thought of as ‘integral to’ Edmonton, is low 60s CPC, while the not-so-integral satellite of Sherwood Park is low 70s. And there's a reason why so many past voters in Sherwood Park preferred to vote for independent Jim Ford than for a Conservative with a turban.
23/08/21 R.O.
Garnett Genius was first elected in 2015 in a long time conservative riding in suburban Edmonton and would expect him to hold the riding.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Suburban Edmonton seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.

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