Election Prediction Project

Red Deer-Lacombe
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Barnes, Joan

Calkins, Blaine

Heyden-Kaye, Tanya

Joujan, Harry

Lim, Megan

Ondieki, David

Watson, Matthew


Blaine Calkins

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



6217.91 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Blaine Calkins ** 5384379.80%
Lauren Pezzella 60128.90%
Tiffany Rose 35405.20%
Laura Lynn Thompson 24533.60%
Sarah Palmer 15962.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Blaine Calkins ** 4359970.70%
Jeff Rock 923515.00%
Doug Hart 705511.40%
Les Kuzyk 17732.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (51.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Red Deer
   (48.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 R.O.
Blaine Calkins was first elected here in 2006 and riding has been conservative or right of centre for some time so likely to stay cpc.
23/08/21 A.S.
The ‘weaker’ of the Red Deer seats, but the CPC vote share increased a lot more here than in Mountain View--from 3 1/2 points behind to only a half point behind. One big explanation might be that the overwhelmingly NDP Maskwacis reserve vote was barely over half that in '15--w/o Maskwacis, the Con share would actually be a point *over* Mountain View (perhaps because MV has more of Red Deer's downtown core).
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.

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