Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Capp, Geoffrey

Harder, Rachael

Hargreaves, Devon

Hovan, Kimmie

Perez, Elaine

Siever, Kim


Rachael Harder

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2975.08 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rachael Harder ** 4071365.80%
Shandi Bleiken 911014.70%
Amy Bronson 844313.60%
Stephnie Watson 19393.10%
Grant Hepworth 10071.60%
Marc Slingerland 6701.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rachael Harder 3232156.80%
Cheryl Meheden 1167420.50%
Mike Pyne 1053218.50%
Kas MacMillan 14612.60%
Geoffrey Capp 7461.30%
Solly Krygier-Paine 2090.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 16143.92%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/08/21 R.O.
Rachael Harder was first elected in 2015 in what has been a long time conservative riding federally. has been some provincial mla’s who weren’t conservative get elected in the smaller provincial ridings but federal riding is solidly conservative.
23/08/21 A.S.
Were CPC polling sub-40% provincially the way some polls have indicated, this *could* be vulnerable--and w/the NDP the favoured opposition force for 3 elections running, at that. But it'd *really* require a heavily urban-centric Jagmeet-Notley machine working on overdrive--which in terms of this election, would be revolutionary. Best to err on the side of non-revolution, for now.
30/07/21 Stevo
With the federal NDP improving in popularity and Trudeau hated as ever in Alberta, I can imagine the CPC-NDP margin in Lethbridge narrowing back to 2011 levels, i.e. 50-30. Note that one of the NDP MLAs survived (albeit barely) the 2019 provincial election that swept in Premier Kenney.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster