Abdi, Abdifatah
	Deheer, Brian
	Goodridge, Laila
	McDonald, Shawn
	Meyers, Jonathan
	Robinson, Garnett
	Whitmore, Hughie Shane
Incumbent:
	David Yurdiga

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			110230 101538 47551 39417 144436.18 km² 0.80/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	David Yurdiga **	40706	79.90%
	Maggie Farrington	4848	9.50%
	Matthew Gilks	2883	5.70%
	Matthew Barrett	1674	3.30%
	Brian Deheer	865	1.70%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	David Yurdiga **	28625	60.60%
	Kyle Harrietha	13403	28.40%
	Melody Lepine	3663	7.70%
	Brian Deheer	743	1.60%
	Scott Berry	552	1.20%
	Roelof Janssen	280	0.60%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		18602	72.52%
		3366	13.12%
		2767	10.79%
		915	3.57%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Fort McMurray-Athabasca    (78.82% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Westlock-St. Paul    (21.18% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	17/09/21	Libby Burgundy 198.91.168.66
There's a perfect storm brewing near Fort Mac. Not only has the PPC apparently poached large parts of the local CPC and UPC parties (and won the endorsement of the outgoing Conservative MP), but Jason Kenney's recent announcements are going to rattle a lot of people. As of today, Alberta reports that only 55.5% of the folks aged 12+ in the municipality of Wood Buffalo (which basically coincides with the riding boundaries) have received two doses of vaccine, compared to 71.5% in the province at large. A majority of these folks are vaccinated, but plenty of them aren't, and I doubt it's down to shyness. These people are going to feel targeted by these restrictions and betrayed by one of Canada's most prominent Conservative premiers. It's not going to be pretty. The PPC have a mountain to climb out here: it's not easy to overtake a party which routinely wins +70% of the vote in a riding. But in this specific election, on this specific issue, under these specific circumstances, the stars do appear dangerously close to alignment.
	13/09/21	Steve Smith 174.3.195.66
Outgoing CPC MP David Yurdiga has endorsed Shawn McDonald of the PPC. Between that and the local CPC riding association's discontent with Goodridge being foisted upon them by the central party...the Conservatives will still win by a healthy margin. But I'll bet this is the PPC's best showing in Alberta, and that they'll be well into the double digits.
	23/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Illuminating the CPC ‘rank and file’ dilemma, it *might* seem as if what triggered Yurdiga's departure was dispute over mandatory vaccinations. Otherwise, on the face of things it might seem as if Fort Mac is the least likely N Alberta riding to put Maverick in 2nd--that is, if the dynamics that gave the Libs strong 2nds in recent times still pertain (they certainly didn't pertain in '19). Of course, Yurdiga's subtext suggests there might be considerable appetite for right-dissidence, anyway (if not winningly so)
	16/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
It looked like all the incumbents in alberta were running for re election until David Yurdiga pulled out at the last minute . been replaced as cpc candidate by current alberta mla Laila Goodridge in what is a long time conservative riding.
	16/08/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
This used the least Conservative-monolithic of the non-Edmonton/Calgary/Lethbridge/Banff seats in Alberta, but pipeline politics, and perhaps Newfoundlanders departing Fort McMurray in the wake of the oil bust, respectively boosted the CPC share and collapsed the Liberal share nearly to Crowfoot levels in 2019. I wouldn't bet on the CPC cresting 80% here though.
	11/05/21	VotreChoix 149.202.238.204
Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.
	05/05/21	JW 45.41.168.96
Montreal West Island constituencies are generally reliably Liberal.