Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:48:09

Constituency Profile


Beauchamp, Tyler

Calliou, Travis

Charles, Hugo

Lake, Mike

Thiering, Ron


Mike Lake

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4842.44 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mike Lake ** 6334672.40%
Richard Wong 1080212.40%
Noah Garver 982011.20%
Emily Drzymala 16601.90%
Neil Doell 16161.80%
Travis Calliou 2110.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mike Lake ** 4494965.80%
Jacqueline Biollo 1466021.50%
Fritz K. Bitz 66459.70%
Joy-Ann Hut 15952.30%
Brayden Whitlock 4950.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1420.34%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (39.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (30.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
   (28.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/09/21 Thomas K
Easy Conservative hold: this riding has more people than the entire province of Prince Edward Island, which has 4 ridings. Kind of represents the sense of anger many in Alberta feel towards the Eastern Laurentian elite.
02/09/21 R.O.
Mike Lake was first elected in 2006 in the Edmonton Mills Woods riding but switched to this riding in 2015. It includes parts of south Edmonton but also a large rural area outside the city. Which might explain the high conservative totals here. likely to stay cpc
23/08/21 A.S.
In '19, I was circumspect about the ‘inevitability’ of this as a 70%+ CPC seat, due to ‘moderating’ Edmonton growth et al--and indeed, the only reason this *was* such a seat is that it was the sort of election where the Cons were routinely chalking up 80%+ mandates in rural Alberta. (The fact that Mike Lake went from outpolling Garnett Genuis by nearly 2 points to being outpolled by Genuis by nearly a point is a ghost of my ‘moderation notion’.) And being the kind of rurban seat that it is, it'll probably be more prone to Maverick raiding than the Edmontonian norm; which means, bye bye such inevitability.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Suburban Edmonton seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.

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