Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Strathcona
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:59:22

Constituency Profile


Green, Kelly

Janke, Wes

McPherson, Heather

Mohamed, Hibo

Obasan, Tunde

Stinson, Malcolm


Heather McPherson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



81.82 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Heather McPherson 2682347.30%
Sam Lilly 2103537.10%
Eleanor Olszewski 659211.60%
Michael Kalmanovitch 11522.00%
Ian Cameron 9411.70%
Naomi Rankin 1250.20%
Dougal MacDonald 770.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Linda Duncan ** 2444644.00%
Len Thom 1739531.30%
Eleanor Olszewski 1152420.70%
Jacob K. Binnema 12782.30%
Malcolm Stinson 3110.60%
Ryan Bromsgrove 2010.40%
Donovan Eckstrom 1330.20%
Chris Jones 1160.20%
Andrew Schurman 1070.20%
Dougal MacDonald 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3840.77%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.06% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton East
   (1.94% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/08/21 Sam
A bit of a strange comment about this being TCTC the point was surely that Conservative underperformance made their own seats vulnerable, and it follows that that same underperformance makes a gain here very unlikely (and as for the Liberals... Trudeau had much higher hopes here last time, hence why he campaigned here specifically as well as in Centre). I agree with what else was said though both here and Mill Woods should go to their respective incumbent parties again.
25/08/21 Jerry Mandering
While I agree that this riding should be an NDP hold, I just wanted to point out that this one is actually more in play than other ridings in Alberta listed as TCTC such as Edmonton Griesbach and Millwoods or Calgary Centre, Confederation or Skyview. If those ridings are TCTC, then to be consistent this one also has to be TCTC as it is the second most-likely riding to flip, after Edmonton Center which IMO is the only riding in Alberta should actually be designated as TCTC. With the exception of Edmonton Center, all other Alberta ridings can be confidently predicted to go the same way they did in 2019.
23/08/21 A.S.
If it couldn't flip in a year of Scheer dominance when the NDP seemed a dead party walking in AltaSask, it won't flip now. Funny and paradoxical, though, how Stratchcona's ‘riding apart from the rest’ stature parallels that of Regina Wascana--as Laurentian/Brahmin as things get in the province. And even Wascana flipped in '19. But not Strathcona. (That's the NDP vs the Libs for you...I guess)
22/08/21 Stevo
When the Harper Conservatives won every seat in Alberta in 2006, many thought that would last for several elections. Turned out to be a one-election wonder as Linda Duncan defeated Rahim Jaffer here in 2008 and the seat has been strong NDP ever since. Part of this federal seat is Rachel Notley's provincial seat, and she earned 82% and 72% of the vote in 2015 and 2019 respectively. The NDP in Edm-Strathcona could probably withstand a Conservative wave today where it could not 15 years ago.
17/08/21 R.O.
Likely to stay ndp , difficult for the conservatives to ever sweep alberta again now that it has 34 ridings and growing urban core in Edmonton and Calgary. Also feel its unlikely the ndp lose many of there existing seats.
15/08/21 Nick M.
The wealthy left. Like the Annex in Toronto. Dominate Edmonton with unjust no parking signs in front of their low dense urban houses have a tendency to pick NDP.
30/07/21 Lolitha
The NDP have firmly established themselves as the leading ‘progressive’ option in this riding, McPherson has been fairly visible as the only non-Con in Alberta, and the provincial NDP under local MLA Rachel Notley are polling well in Edmonton... safe NDP.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
This one was NDP in 2011 and 2019 during massive Conservative waves in Alberta, it's definitely going to stay NDP this time.
10/05/21 Chris N
When Linda Duncan retired in 2019, there was some speculation that this riding could flip, with many wondering if this was a ‘Duncan riding’ rather than an NDP riding. NDP candidate Heather McPherson ended up winning by 10% and I anticipate she will be the favourite this time too.

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