Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Mill Woods
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:35:54

Constituency Profile


Henderson, Ben

Logan, Nigel

McCormack, Paul Edward

Rankin, Naomi

Uppal, Tim


Tim Uppal

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



51.42 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Tim Uppal 2673650.30%
Amarjeet Sohi ** 1787933.60%
Nigel Logan 642212.10%
Tanya Herbert 9681.80%
Annie Young 9531.80%
Don Melanson 2190.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Amarjeet Sohi 2042341.20%
Tim Uppal ** 2033141.10%
Jasvir Deol 633012.80%
Ralph McLean 10962.20%
Colin Stubbs 5601.10%
Allen K.W. Paley 3960.80%
Peter Downing 2850.60%
Naomi Rankin 960.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3350.94%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Dr Bear
Liberals are not polling high enough in Alberta to overcome their vote deficit in this riding. I think it’ll stay Conservative.
18/09/21 Jake H.
Safe Conservative hold.
Sohi was a ‘star’ Liberal candidate and still only clawed away the seat by under 100 votes in the 2015 Liberal sweep. Then he lost it by almost 9,000 to the Conservative candidate, Tim Uppal, in 2019. With Uppal back and Sohi running for mayor instead of losing again federally, this will be more of the same.
Yes, the Cons are polling lower provincially, but that doesn't translate to loving Justin federally and they are hardly ‘tanking’ here.
Uppal will hold his seat.
18/09/21 Redmontonian
This riding has similar characteristics to a GTA swing riding - high immigrant, visible minority population that is solidly middle class. The only differentiating factor is that it is in Alberta where the Trudeau brand is fairly toxic. Fortunately for the Liberal candidate, the conservative brand is even more toxic at present due to Kenneys questionable pandemic management. I predict a close race but that the endorsement of popular outgoing mayor Don Iveson will put the Liberal candidate over the edge.
15/09/21 Nick M.
No this race wont be close. Justin Trudeau hasnصt bothered to step foot in good olصe REDmonton for this campaign.
I drive to this riding everyday, and only found the LPC lawn sign 2 days ago. I found out who the LPC candidate was ladt week not via lawn signs, but from seeing his name on this website.
There is a municipal election that local LPC resources are committed to.
NDP has a good chance to finnish second, setting NDP up in the future as fhe progressive option for the city.
11/09/21 George
Mainstreet has a tie here, slight Lib lead.
09/09/21 R.O.
Tim Uppal was first elected here in 2008 but lost the seat in 2015 when Amarjeet Sohi held it for 1 term, and then won it back in 2019 by a large margin. Liberals have a new candidate Ben Henderson who is a city councillor in Edmonton. But liberals not polling well in alberta where the ndp are making inroads in Edmonton. But federally the cpc does better in Edmonton than provincial conservative parties .
26/08/21 Nick M.
If there is one riding I had to pick as a CPC win that Electionpredictionproject called TCTC, it would be this one.
24/08/21 Jerry Mandering
The ‘swing’ reputation of this riding is very over-rated. Sohi won it in an upset in the Trudeaumania campaign of 2015 by 0.1% (under 200 votes), and promptly lost it by over 15% in 2019. Liberals have no chance here - There is a good reason why Sohi is running for Mayor rather than to try and take back this unattainable seat.
23/08/21 A.S.
Sohi's incumbency really boosted the Lib figure beyond the norm in '19. Henderson or no Henderson, I have my suspicion about whether the Libs presently have what it takes to defeat the Cons in Mill Woods--never mind Sohi or David Kilgour in the past, or the ethno-political ‘Edmontonian pendant to Skyview’ factor. And it's as a bow to the latter that I'm resorting to non-predicting in an age where the Cons in Alta seem more vulnerable than they've been in a long time--but also, maybe more this incumbentless time than in '19, Jagmeet's ethnicity might be poised to ‘split the left’.
16/08/21 Stevo
Amarjeet Sohi, who seems to be on track to win the Edmonton mayoral race, is just the kind of humble and competent member in short supply in the Liberal caucus, so his loss in 2019 was unfortunate. Unless the provincial UCP's unpopularity (especially in Edmonton) spills over into the federal election, very little chance of an upset here.
10/08/21 Steve Smith
No sooner do I say ‘If the Liberals can find a candidate of Amarjeet Sohi's profile’ than does long-serving city councillor Ben Henderson announce that he's running for the Liberals here. I'd say that he's got the profile to make it a race, though this is something of an odd riding for him; while ward boundaries have shifted considerably over his time on council, he's generally represented areas of the city that would fall within the riding of Edmonton Strathcona (which the NDP has sewn up) and, earlier on, Edmonton Centre (a portion of which Henderson's wife, Laurie Blakeman, long represented for the provincial Liberals, back when there were provincial Liberals in Alberta).
Anyway, I think too close to call remains the right rating here, but I'd be moderately surprised to see Henderson take it.
06/07/21 Steve Smith
If the Liberals can find a candidate of Amarjeet Sohi's profile, they *could* make a race of it (they won't get Sohi himself, assuming a fall 2021 election, since he's busy running for mayor of Edmonton). Barring that, it should be a Conservative hold, despite slipping Conservative fortunes in Alberta.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster