Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Manning
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-06 01:12:00

Constituency Profile


Aboultaif, Ziad

Halvorson, Martin

Smith, Donna Lynn

St. Germain, Charmaine

Vachon, Andre


Ziad Aboultaif

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



157.73 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ziad Aboultaif ** 3042555.90%
Kamal Kadri 1169221.50%
Charmaine St. Germain 955517.60%
Laura-Leah Shaw 12552.30%
Daniel Summers 11092.00%
Pam Phiri 2760.50%
Andre Vachon 680.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ziad Aboultaif 2216645.20%
Sukhdev Aujla 1350927.60%
Aaron Paquette 1158223.60%
Chris Vallee 10792.20%
Mebreate Deres 5401.10%
André Vachon 1250.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 20495.99%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton-Sherwood Park
   (46.29% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton East
   (45.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (8.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 R.O.
Zaid Aboultaif was first elected in 2015 in what has been a long time conservative riding in Edmonton federally. So likely he holds the riding.
23/08/21 A.S.
Actually, there is greater-than-zero chance of this going NDP, if we simply go by Kenney-backlash-fueled polls showing severely depressed numbers for CPC in Alberta--that is, the pickups have to come from *somewhere*; and while this may be suburban, it's also a bit of a Hamilton Mountain or London-Fanshawe type of suburban that isn't *that* averse to NDP support (certainly not provincially). However, 5% is greater than zero; and my CPC prediction acknowledges the other 95%. I'm still prepared to be surprised, though.
03/08/21 Steve Smith
No idea how this got marked as too close to call. It is easy to call: Conservative hold.
02/08/21 Thomas K
Very suburban Edmonton riding that is far from the city centre. There is literally 0 chance this is going to elect an NDP MP. Safe Conservative.
22/07/21 Garth
Most polls show the Conservative vote down more than 20% from the last election in Alberta and the NDP vote up more than 10%. If the Conservatives have lost support, this is one of the ridings where one expect to see it. If the NDP has gained support, the gains will be greatest in Edmonton. If the election is called soon, this riding will be in play.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Suburban Edmonton seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.

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