Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Griesbach
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:34:56

Constituency Profile


Boykowich, Alex

Desjarlais, Blake

Diotte, Kerry

Joyce, Mary

Lau, Heather

Matty, Thomas

Mohamud, Habiba

Watson, Morgan


Kerry Diotte

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.97 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kerry Diotte ** 2412051.40%
Mark Cherrington 1180025.10%
Habiba Mohamud 810017.20%
Safi Khan 11892.50%
Barbara Ellen Nichols 10742.30%
Andrzej Gudanowski 2160.50%
Christine Alva Armas 2030.40%
Alex Boykowich 1700.40%
Mary Joyce 910.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kerry Diotte 1915740.00%
Janis Irwin 1630934.00%
Brian Gold 1039721.70%
Heather Workman 11292.40%
Maryna Goncharenko 4150.90%
Linda Northcott 2790.60%
Bun Bun Thompson 1440.30%
Mary Joyce 1120.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton East
   (78.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-St. Albert
   (21.26% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/09/21 Physastr Master
NDP support has nearly doubled in Alberta, and it's fair to say most of that will be in Edmonton. Considering that the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona last election with mainstreet polling putting them in third place, I'm not at all worried about their poll here. 338 now has this going NDP too. I think NDP is the right call
19/09/21 Philly D.
I'm surprised how quickly this has been called for the Conservatives. All the recent polling suggests this one will go NDP, especially if any of the NDP increase is concentrated in Edmonton. The NDP won this seat in 1988 when Reform got 15%, and the PPC is approaching the same levels province-wide (even if they will fare much worse here).
19/09/21 Dr Bear
The NDP are polling about ten points higher in Alberta than they got in 2015. I’ll just leave that little factoid here as you look back to the 2015 results.
14/09/21 R.O.
Just noticed there was a mainstreet poll for this riding and incumbent is ahead . 40 cpc Kerry Diotte , 30 ndp Blake Desjardins , 20 liberal .
13/09/21 George
Mainstreet shows a conservative lead, 40 Con to 30 NDP among decided voters.
03/09/21 Physastr Master
I don't think the conservative posters here realize just how high the Conservative support was in Alberta last election - 69%! The NDP got only 11.6%, and nearly all current polling has them in the 20%-range (19% from 338, and 22% from tooclosetocall), a near-doubling of support. 54% is not ‘high CPC polling’ in Alberta. This is why 338 and tooclosetocall both have it as a toss-up, with 338 leaning Con and tooclosetocall leaning NDP.
Trudeaumania was not good for the NDP. The provincial numbers then were 60% CPC, 12% NDP. The NDP are now polling far better, and this riding is solid NDP provincially with the NDP getting massive majorities in the 50%s and 60%s here. I'm not ready to call it, but this is definitely TCTC, and there are a few other AB ridings that could cause surprises on election day.
28/08/21 nyuji
This riding is safe for the Conservatives. With the high CPC polling for Alberta and the margin this riding was won by in 2015 and 2019 this riding will be safe for the conservatives without any chance for it to be ‘too close to call’. The margin between the CPC and NDP may decrease from last time but it will still be a strong blue due to LPC voters flipping to the CPC due to O’Toole’s ‘Red Tory’ approach this election (which is very attractive in Edmonton and Alberta in general).
25/08/21 Jerry Mandering
Safe Conservative riding. If the Conservatives won here by 6% during the height of Trudeaumania in 2015, not to mention by 26% in 2019 which is a much more realistic projection as this election looks to be a repeat of the one two years ago, they aren't going to lose this time. It is true that this is one of a handful of ridings in Alberta where the Conservatives don't win with 50%+ margins, but that doesn't mean its TCTC.
23/08/21 A.S.
This is actually the riding that best fits the pre-Y2K pigeonhole of ‘NDP target riding’ in Edmonton--less town-and-gown yuppie a la Strathcona, more blue-collar ‘Redmontonian’, the successor to Ross Harvey's 1988 redoubt and to the provincial leadership strongholds of Ray Martin, Pam Barrett, and Brian Mason. Unfortunately, that kind of traditionally-defined Prairie Dipperism tended to take a back seat to the Layton/Mulcair/Jagmeet lineage of Laurentianism/cosmopolitanism--something that worked in Strathcona, but elsewhere couldn't hold a candle to the Harper/Scheer variety of ‘representing Western interests’. Maybe *now*, w/Kenney backlash, Notley ahead in the polls, and a non-Western federal Conservative leader, will be that time for the NDP to conquer Griesbach--together w/perhaps the three-way case of Edmonton Centre, the next logical Alberta NDP pickup after Strathcona. But they've been thwarted so often, it's easy to be cynical...
17/08/21 R.O.
Kerry Diotte has been mp since 2015 , true Edmonton the most competitive area in alberta and provincial ndp do very well here but in federal elections this riding has been conservative for years .
15/08/21 Nick M.
Unless star candidate is running for another party, forget about it. CPC
05/08/21 Ty from Ed
The NDP narrowly lost this riding to the CPC in 2015 despite polling significantly lower in Alberta than they are today. Provincially, this riding is solidly NDP with over 50% support in the most recent election. Current polling suggests that the NDP is strong in Alberta as the primary alternative to the CPC. Demographically, this riding is predominately inner city, blue collar and working class and would be overwhelming NDP in any other province. Narrow NDP win here.
06/07/21 Steve Smith
Kerry Diotte more than doubled up the second place New Democrat here in 2019. Still, Conservative fortunes in Alberta are flagging enough that a reasonably consolidated left-of-CPC vote could probably take it. In every election since 2008, the New Democrats have nominated a comparative heavyweight, while the Liberals have nominated a comparative non-entity. If that happens again, there is a realistic chance of an NDP pickup; if both the Liberals and NDP make a serious play for the seat, Diotte should be safe.
23/06/21 Stevo
Notley's big win in 2015 didn't carry over to favourable federal results later that year, so it is clear that one cannot extrapolate results from one level government to another. But it's hard to imagine that the sudden tanking popularity of Jason Kenney's UCP (Notley's NDP is well ahead in the polls) won't have any impact. An NDP win here may well depend on strategic voting by Liberals.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

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