Election Prediction Project

Edmonton Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:21:37

Constituency Profile


Boissonnault, Randy

Crocker, Brock

Cumming, James

Edwards, Merryn

Keefe, Valerie

MacKenzie, Heather


James Cumming

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.39 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

James Cumming 2200641.40%
Randy Boissonnault ** 1752433.00%
Katherine Swampy 1095920.60%
Grad Murray 13942.60%
Paul Hookham 8051.50%
Donovan Eckstrom 2060.40%
Adil Pirbhai 1190.20%
Peggy Morton 790.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Randy Boissonnault 1990237.20%
James Cumming 1870335.00%
Gil McGowan 1308424.50%
David Parker 14032.60%
Steven Stauffer 2570.50%
Kat Yaki 1630.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2970.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Edmonton Centre
   (96.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (3.38% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

13/09/21 Physastr Master
It's worth noting that that mainstreet poll is almost a perfect mirror of the Edmonton-Strathcona poll from last election, just with the Liberals and Conservatives swapped places. As we all know, neither of those parties came close to winning in Strathcona last election, so I think my skepticism is well-grounded. The liberals in particular have overperformed in mainstreet riding polls relative to E-day in Alberta and the NDP have underperformed. A 2019 Mainstreet poll in Mill Woods was also off by 10 points in favor of the Liberals. For more fun with Mainstreet's awful riding-level polling record, particularly in the West, see Vancouver East 2019, Elmwood-Transcona 2019, Victoria 2019, and Surrey-Fleetwood BC 2017, all pretty bleak misses with double-digit errors, mainly from the NDP to Liberals.
I think this all points to Edmonton-Centre being three-way competitive, and I'm not comfortable making a call in any direction. The split left makes it much more volatile than other two-way prairie races.
13/09/21 R.O.
James Cumming was first elected here in 2019 but was also the cpc candidate in 2015 when Randy Boissonneault got elected for 1 term as a liberal. this riding had been liberal in the 90’s-2000 when Anne Mclennan mp then conservative from 2006-11 when Laurie Hawn mp. I’m surprised mainstreet polls think the liberals will do that well here considering it has a history of close races. Some of the other polls I’ve seen also have way lower regional numbers for the liberals in alberta. New abacus poll was 11 % behind ndp 23 % and cpc 57 % and new forum poll had 14 % liberal , 22 ndp and 45 cpc. Of course those are province wide and not riding specific but even so I see little evidence the liberals are doing better in alberta this year especially with the ndp gaining ground .
13/09/21 Drew613
Food for thought about Edmonton Centre based on three ifs: if the Libs remain the government and if Boissonnault re-takes Edmonton Centre and if this is the only riding to go red in Alberta, Boissonnault would be all but guaranteed a cabinet posting. Don't know if that factors into any voter's decision making in this riding, but just thought I'd throw it out there.
07/09/21 South Islander
I'm surprised people doubt Boissonnault is ahead despite a poll showing him ahead by 14. The poll was from August 22-28, during which all pollsters showed Conservatives leading and which included the peak Conservative lead per Ekos and Mainstreet. Polling averages have conservatives down about 14% compared in AB compared to their 2019 result. Incumbent Cumming was the critic for Covid, which may hurt his chances. Trudeau's performance under Covid has been solid, especially compared to Kenney's. A former Liberal cabinet minister winning in the heart of Notley Country during Covid is hardly farfetched.
05/09/21 Nick M.
Local Liberal resources are being used to win a Mayoral Campaign.
I beleive this may be a factor that could hurt the Liberal challenge in this riding.
01/09/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet riding poll has Liberals ahead. I REALLY don't believe the Liberals are this far ahead but thought I would share anyway:
40 Lib 26 Con 22 NDP 6 Undecided
28/08/21 nyuji
This riding was only won by a slim margin in 2015, during Trudeaumania. As Nick M. previously stated, it’s going to be hard for non-Cons to strategically vote in this riding as both the LPC and NDP candidates are relatively strong so the left wing vote will probably be divided this election again. There is heavy disdain for Trudeau in Edmonton just like the rest of Alberta, so a good chunk of LPC voters will flip over to the NDP side or even the CPC following O’Toole’s Red Tory strategy. Overall, this riding should be safe for the Conservative with a decrease in the Liberal vote and a slight increase in the NDP vote.
25/08/21 Jerry Mandering
IMO this is the only riding in Alberta that is actually TCTC, all the other Alberta ridings can confidently be predicted to go the same way they did in 2019, although the Conservatives might get slightly less margins across the board due to Kenney's unpopularity. However Edmonton Center is the only riding in Alberta where the Conservatives won by less than 10% in 2019 where this might possibly come into play. This site has to get over the 2015 Trudeaumania results where the Liberals were competitive in the 6 ridings that are now designated TCTC. With the possible exception of Edmonton Center, and I doubt the Liberals even win here, there is no hope for a Liberal to be elected elsewhere in Alberta. Edmonton Millwoods, Griesbach and Calgary Center, Confederation and Skyview will all be comfortable Conservative wins by double digits.
I guess TCTC is the right call for now, but I don't expect the Liberals to win unless the Tory vote craters. It is probably the best Liberal possibility in Alberta, but everything would have to go right for a Liberal to be elected even here. Randy is a known personality in Edmonton and Edmonton Center does have a history of Liberal candidates squeaking out victories, but anti-Trudeau anti-fed sentiment runs deep in Alberta. For the Liberals to pull this one out, they'd have to be in comfortable majority territory.
23/08/21 A.S.
If the Cons only got 41.4% in '19--the only Alberta seat they held that year w/a non-majority--given how polling's been going, how guaranteed is it that they'll get 40% this time? Plus, the Liberal *does* have, at least on paper, a certain ‘strategic voting advantage’ in having *previously* been the incumbent--except that in Notley's Edmonton, the NDP would also like a piece of that pie (and indeed, they also targeted Edmonton Centre in '15, only to be overtaken by Justinmania--and they still managed to hang on to a 20%+ share in '19). It really is a 3-way circumstance, and not necessarily the only or primary Lib target/prospect in Alta (that is, if there are any gains in Calgary, they're likely to be Liberal)
15/08/21 Nick M.
Conservatives will get 40 percent of the vote. Since the incumbent is not NDP or Liberal, any strategic voting advantage is lost.
Unless the Mayor shamelessly quits his job, and runs here, we can forget about it. CPC win.
01/08/21 Marco Ricci
Edmonton Centre is probably the only riding in Alberta that the Liberals have a chance of winning in the next election. Former Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault is running to win back the seat, and this could help the Liberals. But in order to win here the Liberals will need 2 things: 1) Decent numbers in Alberta and 2) Win a large share of the non-Conservative vote. Will the Liberal-NDP vote get behind Boissonnault? That is the question.
06/07/21 Steve Smith
Looking at this riding in the post-Landslide Annie era (i.e. the era during which Liberal fortunes in the riding weren't boosted by having a national heavyweight candidate), we see that the Conservatives won in 2008, 2011, and 2019. The Conservative-to-Liberal margin in Alberta in those elections was 65%-11%, 67%-9%, and 69%-14%. The Liberals won in 2015 when the margin province-wide was 60%-25%.
As of today, the 338 Canada projection for Alberta is 48%-21%. Moreover, the most recent polls show even less favourable numbers for the Conservatives. If those numbers prove anywhere near accurate, this should be a Liberal pickup.
30/06/21 Stevo
This SHOULD be Liberal-leaning or at least a toss-up. But Trudeau is so toxic in the Prairies that I think his unpopularity will prevent any Liberal candidate from winning here. When Trudeau eventually leaves and is hopefully replaced by a centrist who treats Westerners as full Canadians (rather than as a cash cow for Quebec), I believe Edmonton-Centre will eagerly climb on board.
28/06/21 Lolitha
One of the few battlegrounds in Alberta and this election will likely be no different. With the Cons currently down in the polls from last time, a Tossup to begin with!
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

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