Election Prediction Project

Calgary Skyview
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:35:25

Constituency Profile


Aquart, Lee

Blanchard, Daniel

Chahal, George

Dhillon, Harry

Gill, Gurinder Singh

Rana, Nadeem

Sahota, Jag

So, Janna


Jag Sahota

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



122.56 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jag Sahota 2653352.50%
Nirmala Naidoo 1432728.30%
Gurinder Singh Gill 754014.90%
Signe Knutson 8001.60%
Harry Dhillon 6031.20%
Joseph Alexander 4831.00%
Harpreet Singh Dawar 1360.30%
Daniel Blanchard 1300.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Darshan Singh Kang 2064445.90%
Devinder Shory ** 1788539.80%
Sahajvir Singh 36058.00%
Najeeb Butt 9572.10%
Ed Reddy 8461.90%
Stephen Garvey 7861.70%
Joseph Young 1820.40%
Daniel Blanchard 880.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1290.44%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary Northeast
   (99.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Wild Rose
   (0.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Traveller
The Libs lost this by 24 points last time. Even Con non-entities win in Alberta, so the current MP’s record means little. The Libs aren’t popular in AB at the best of times and this election is not the best of times for them. There was a lot of excitement about Justin in 2015 but that’s long gone. The most likely result is that the Cons take every AB seat again except Edmonton-Strathcona.
12/09/20 James Ying
With a high profile candidate for the Liberals, its recent history (Liberal win in 2015), and Justin Trudeau visiting Calgary Skyview last month (which included support from current mayor Naheed Nenshi) this is the Calgary riding that is least likely to stay in the Conservative column this election. As a lifelong Calgarian I don't follow Traveller's comment on Bev Longstaff and Dave Bronconnier's unsuccessful bids to become Liberal MPs - Bronconnier ran in Calgary West before he became mayor and Longstaff ran in Calgary Centre. Both failed runs occurred in 1997, which might as well be a lifetime ago, even in Calgary federal politics. The Conservative incumbent Jag Sahota has been invisible since elected in 2019. Likely Liberal pickup, and in my view, the second most likely riding in Alberta to go Liberal in 2021 (after Edmonton Centre).
10/09/21 Wasyl
As an Ontarian, I'm dumbfounded that any riding in Calgary could go Liberal given how anti-Alberta and anti-energy industry the Liberals are. This is self-destructive behavior. If re-elected, the Liberals will cause even more damage to the economy, guaranteed.
08/09/21 Traveller
A big name candidate is a definite asset for the Liberals but this is Calgary, where Liberals need a broad national lead to be taken seriously, and that's not the case this time. Former mayor Bronconnier and alderman Longstaff tried to get elected as Liberals in the city years ago and couldn't do it. I think the anger against Trudeau is sufficient to prevent a repeat of the two 2015 Liberal wins in the city.
31/08/21 Drew613
A few here are prematurely calling this for the Cons. This is TCTC as (as of a week ago) a Mainstreet riding poll had, believe it or not, the Liberals in the lead here by 2%. That's well within the poll's MoE, so TCTC is very appropriate for Calgary-Skyview at the moment: https://web.archive.org/web/20210825033237/https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache%3AYSyKm9LZb0kJ%3Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fipolitics.ca%2Felection-2021%2Flevel-4%2F
26/08/21 Physastr Master
I wouldn't object if you made a CPC call in Calgary Centre or Confederation, as they were on a razors edge in 2015 and I think it's safe to say this election won't be Trudeaumania. That said, the provincial UCP is indeed terribly unpopular in Alberta, so a swing away from the conservatives isn't unrealistic. In fact, we probably will see a bit of that. Polling numbers for both 338 and tooclosetocall both have the Liberals ahead, Conservatives second, and tooclosetocall has the NDP within 10 points of the lead, so if Jagmeet starts becoming a more realistic contender this might start to gain 3-way energy. To me that makes a TCTC call more appropriate if anything just to mark what is in my opinion the only interesting race in Alberta outside Edmonton. If not, at least call Calgary Centre and Confederation for the Conservatives, they are definitely less probable flips.
25/08/21 Jerry Mandering
While this is the riding where the Liberals are most competitive in Calgary, due to previous results and a well-known city council candidate running for the Liberals, this is still a safe Conservative riding. This site has to get over the 2015 Trudeaumania results where the Liberals were competitive in the 6 Alberta ridings that are now designated TCTC. With the possible exception of Edmonton Center, and I doubt the Liberals win even win there, there is absolutely no hope for a Liberal to be elected elsewhere in Alberta. The Conservatives won here by 24% in 2019, and while their margin of victory might go down, they should still win this comfortably by double digits.
25/08/21 R.O.
Jag Sahota is a first term mp elected in 2019 so not that well known. But the riding has traditionally been conservative like the other Calgary ridings minus Darshan Kangs win in 2015 as a liberal. true the liberals are running a city councillor but still a Calgary riding in alberta and a liberal win in suburban Calgary is rare and unlikely. This riding could become more competitive in the future as city grows and it becomes more ethnically diverse.
23/08/21 A.S.
Self-evident that if other parties are to eager to feast off urban Calgary ridings, this'd be top of the pack--even in '19, the Libs won a whole flock of polls in the parts roughly overlapping w/the provincial NDP hold Calgary-McCall. Trouble is, the Libs aren't the only game going--this was also '19's top federal NDP riding in Calgary, *their* candidate's running again, and they're surely counting on ethnoburban Jagmeet coattails which'd surely threaten to put a stick in the Liberal-sure-get bicycle wheel. And given the present size of CPC margin, even ‘sure get’ would be pushing it...
05/08/21 Paul
With a very popular City Councillor now running for the Liberal's and Trudeau already making appearances here I predict a swing to the red for this Calgary riding.
31/07/21 Sam
This riding is not safe for the CPC on their current numbers - and if the Liberals were to gain a riding in Calgary it's quite possible this would be the first one. Yes, the CPC won by big margins last time but even with some reversion to the mean it's not looking too comfortable for them on current polling.
24/07/21 KXS
Not sure why Calgary Skyview is seen as a CPC hold, while Calgary Confederation is a toss up.
This is probably the most likely pick up for Liberals in Calgary. Their candidate is also an incumbent Ward 5 city councillor.
09/07/21 Steve Smith
It's definitely premature to call this for the Conservatives. The Liberals won it in 2015 with a star-ish candidate. Conservative fortunes in Alberta appear to be lower than they were in 2015, and now the Liberals have announced another star-ish candidate in George Chahal. I'd have this as too close to call, maybe even with a slight edge to the Liberals.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

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