Kelly, Pat
	Kieren, Jena Dianne
	MacLeod, Rory
	Munir, Shahnaz
	Robinson, David
	Wright, Catriona
Incumbent:
	Pat Kelly

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			131823 108901 45765 44797 91.17 km² 1446.00/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Pat Kelly **	48253	68.30%
	Todd Kathol	13012	18.40%
	Nathan LeBlanc Fortin	6051	8.60%
	Catriona Wright	2011	2.80%
	Tyler Poulin	1053	1.50%
	Shaoli Wang	270	0.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Pat Kelly	38229	60.40%
	Nirmala Naidoo	20038	31.70%
	Stephanie Kot	3665	5.80%
	Catriona Wright	1360	2.10%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		30178	68.52%
		5050	11.47%
		5571	12.65%
		3189	7.24%
Other		51	0.12%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Calgary-Nose Hill    (65.97% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Calgary West    (33.75% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Wild Rose    (0.28% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	27/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Pat Kelly was first elected in 2015 in this suburban Calgary riding which has been a long time conservative area. so likely to stay cpc .
	23/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Interesting how the CPC share here did *not* rise as much as in Nose Hill next door--maybe because Kelly wasn't as high-profile as MRG, or maybe because there's more ‘moderating’ newburbia, or conversely more direct CTrain-commutability (the latter of which seemed to dictate '19's weakest Con-spots). Still monolithically safe, though.
	11/05/21	VotreChoix 149.202.238.204
Suburban Calgary seat which has been safe for the Conservatives for decades. Don't see that changing this election.