Election Prediction Project

Calgary Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-02 11:10:20

Constituency Profile


Estevez Moreno, Juan

Grover, Sabrina

McLean, Greg

Mullins, Austin

Pawlowski, Dawid


Greg McLean

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



49.20 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Greg McLean 3730656.60%
Kent Hehr ** 1777127.00%
Jessica Buresi 65169.90%
Thana Boonlert 28534.30%
Chevy Johnston 9071.40%
Eden Gould 2470.40%
Michael Pewtress 1380.20%
Dawid Pawlowski 1260.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kent Hehr 2849646.50%
Joan Crockatt ** 2774645.30%
Jillian Ratti 34125.60%
Thana Boonlert 13472.20%
Yogi Henderson 2480.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 80.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Calgary Centre
   (96.7% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Calgary East
   (3.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 R.O.
Greg Mclean was first elected here in 2019 when he beat liberal Kent Hehr who got elected here in a surprise victory in 2015. Before that the riding had been conservative or right of centre parties for decades. This riding has no peopleصs party candidate one of the few riding in alberta where they might have had an impact on the outcome but for whatever reason they didnصt get one on the ballot.
28/08/21 nyuji
This riding, along with Edmonton Centre, may have been competitive if Trudeau wasn’t leading the Liberals. I’m not sure why this riding is listed as TCTC while Calgary Skyview is considered a CPC hold; if anything that riding would turn red first. Anti-Trudeau feelings are strong in Alberta right now and that would involve swing voters flipping blue and orange. I don’t even think there’s enough left wing votes in this riding for strategic voting to even do anything. This is definitely going to CPC hand down.
25/08/21 Jerry Mandering
Safe Conservative riding. This site has to get over the 2015 Trudeaumania results where the Liberals were competitive in the 6 Alberta ridings that are now designated TCTC. With the possible exception of Edmonton Center, and I doubt the Liberals win even win there, there is absolutely no hope for a Liberal to be elected elsewhere in Alberta. The Conservatives won here by 30% in 2019, and while their margin of victory might go down slightly (say about 5% or so), they are in no danger whatsoever of losing this riding.
23/08/21 A.S.
Endangerment here all hinges upon Kenney (and *maybe* O'Toole being a non-Westerner), together with more generic ‘urban seat’ matters. All the same, the ‘sooner or later, urban Calgary will outgrow the Conservatives’ POV has proven to be serially wishful think, or something reserved for the municipal and to some extent provincial scene (and there's a reason why Mayor Nenshi's opted to be strategically neutral re federal politics). But yes, it *could* be different now, thus my withholding a prediction--trouble being that of Calgary as a Lib-over-NDP sort of town, and Team Justin presently being in a weak position to reap Albertan benefits...
17/08/21 Traveller
No way the Libs take any AB ridings as long as Trudeau remains leader. The changes in political party support across Canada won't affect what happens in Calgary enough to swing seats. Even in Edmonton, one or two might change at most.
30/07/21 Stevo
A new Liberal leader is required before the party can hope to contest seats in Calgary again. And the city's multiculturalism won't do it - Calgary has done a good job absorbing immigrants into the overarching conservative, anti-establishment culture.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the CPC polling lower and backlash against the UCP at the provincial level, this one could become a tossup.

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