Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-24 00:36:33

Constituency Profile


Blum, Aidan

Elnaga, Tariq

Gamble, David

O'Driscoll, Caroline

Richards, Blake

Sloan, Derek

Voss, Ron

Wellwood, Nadine

Zagoda, Sarah


Blake Richards

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



12358.29 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Blake Richards ** 5550471.10%
Gwyneth Midgley 842510.80%
Anne Wilson 818510.50%
Austin Mullins 33154.20%
Nadine Wellwood 26513.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Blake Richards ** 4222863.40%
Marlo Raynolds 1738026.10%
Joanne Boissonneault 45216.80%
Mike MacDonald 25093.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1650.39%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Wild Rose
   (97.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (2.52% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/09/21 P Cowboy
My riding; my base case was CPC 40% PPC 20% Sloan 10%, but this could end up closer than a lot of people think. Premier Kenney's Covid screwup / last minute introduction of a vaxpass only upset everyone, and that might just mix the numbers up on election day. I still think Cons take this and tough to call a PPC surge with very little polling to go on, but not out of the realm of possibility.
17/09/21 R.O.
Flipping thru some articles on google came across a poll for this riding by a pollster called spadina insights. there numbers are Blake Richards cpc 44 % , David Gamble lib 13 % , Sarah Zagoda ndp 12 % , Nadine Wellwood ppc 10 % , Tariq Elnaga maverick 7 %, Derek Sloan ind 6 % , Aidan Blum green 1 %
08/09/21 Traveller
There's no guarantee Sloan will even finish second. I don't know what he was thinking - he might have made more of an impact in a riding not right next to a major city. And part of this riding went NDP in 2015 and came close to repeating in 2019. Those are not voters who will want to go even further to the right.
24/08/21 Jerry Mandering
I'm from a neighbouring riding. There is no way rural Alberta would vote for a random carpet-bagging right-winger with little profile - especially when we have so many of our own homegrown anonymous right-wing MPs. I agree with others that having this as TCTC puts into question the integrity of this website. Sloan will be lucky to get into double digits here and the incumbent will get well over 50% of the vote again..more likely over 60% just as he did during the Trudeaumania campaign of 2015.
23/08/21 Mid-Islander
I get why Sloan thought parachuting here was a good idea. He didn't win HLA by a huge margin over the Liberal candidate and likely would've split the vote there, so he figured he'd jump into one of the strongest Conservative ridings under the notion that lots of Conservative votes means lots of people on his end of the spectrum. Looking at how unremarkably the PPC did here last time probably shows otherwise. But let's remember who we're talking about here. This isn't, say, Maxime Bernier, a former cabinet minister who narrowly lost the Conservative party leadership, but Derek Sloan, a low-profile newcomer who came last in the leadership race (he didn't do any better in this particular riding either, by the way). If Bernier couldn't win Beauce as an incumbent in 2019, then there's no way Sloan can come close to winning Banff-Airdrie as a carpetbagger against an incumbent that got 71% of the vote last time.
23/08/21 Stevo
Derek Sloan will be lucky to get 10%. And although this is still an uber-safe Conservative seat, under no conceiveable circumstances would an Archie Bunker type like Myron Thompson be permitted to stand for the party these days.
23/08/21 A.S.
Had he made his independent run in his home riding, Derek Sloan might have carried some dissident credibility (even if it wrecked Conservative hopes of holding the riding in the process)--but transporting himself to *here*, and as an unaffiliated standalone alongside already-in-place PPC and Maverick candidates, only signifies tinpot fringe amateurism that'd make Jim Pankiw blush. (Has there ever been a 7th-place sitting incumbent?) Otherwise, this riding will always be exceptional among rural Alta ridings for the Banff factor--in '15's Justinmania, Banff/Lake Louise gave the Libs a majority landslide; in '19, CPC prevailed w/barely over 30% and less than 5 points separating CPC/NDP/Lib (and subtract the advance polls, and the *NDP* would have had the plurality). Yet '15's only NDP poll, the Stoney reserve, went *Liberal* this time. And delete everything from Stoney on west, and the Cons' '19 figure would have been around 79% or so. Totally 2019 normal.
23/08/21 Hammer
As much as I would love to see this turn into a s@#t show of epic proportions, there's no way it will happen. Sloan could have stayed in Hastings, played spoiler or maybe even won, but goes across the country to an extremely safe conservative riding as the mother of all parachutes; why? The only reason I can think of is to send a message to his party without harming the conservative seat count. If there's an other reason I doubt his political and personal sanity.
22/08/21 Sam
Are we really calling this TCTC because of a carpetbagging MP, who, despite a leadership run and the unnecessary attention that is typical of media these days, is for all intents and purposes an insignificant politician. Besides, there's already a PPC and Maverick candidate to fulfil that role. I understand that as a narrative, but in this riding, still solid for the CPC, he'll have no major effect on the outcome here.
22/08/21 Outside Inside
Derek Sloan will make the race in this riding more of a circus than it is currently, but it strains credulity to entertain the notion that he poses any threat to the Conservative incumbent at this stage.
21/08/21 RG
So I seriously doubt the integrity of how the organizers of this site make decisions. Just cause a maverick type MP who has some profile decides to run here does not mean anything. This is a solid Tory seat, unless the Tories collapse in the next 5 weeks. Sure, there may be some Sloan Supporters, but so what. Airdrie is an affluent suburb, Canmore and Banff are nice small towns, plus this riding has suburban estate homes. It is not redneck. Tory by a landslide.
21/08/21 Chris N
No clue why Derek Sloan is running in Banff-Airdrie. Maybe wanted to enjoy the scenery? I'm curious to see if he can finish ahead of the PPC candidate.
21/08/21 Thomas K
This shouldn't be too close to call. Banff-Airdrie isn't even a particularly right-wing riding--it has the suburban Airdrie element and Banff element, parts of which almost voted NDP in the 2019 Alberta election. There's no way a disgruntled nut parachute candidate from Ontario is going to win here. ?Maybe? a second-place finish if he's very lucky.
21/08/21 Steve Smith
Come on, EP, by no stretch of the imagination is this riding ‘too close to call’. Sloan will get maybe 10-15% of the vote. Maybe less. Meanwhile, Richards won this last time by ~60%.
21/08/21 Neal
Oh come on..... taking this out of the Conservative column because Sloan has parachuted in?
Better put it back if you want to retain credibility.
Sloan's erratic behviour and extreme egotism has shown most of us who were originally skeptical about his expulsion from caucus that caucus may have had some very valid reasons for voting him out.
He will have little or no effect on the vote in Banff, wheras he could have been a spoiler in HLA.
|As the campaign drags on his voice will become even more irrelevant, and lost in the din. If he gets even 5% i will be surprised.
Easy hold for the Conservatives.
That being said, if he had gone under PPC or CHP he might have had an impact, , but his desire to push forward with a nebulous party of his own which will not even be registered shows hubris and instability.
he will be lucky if he pulls 1000 votes.
21/08/21 R.O.
In a bizarre more independent mp Derek Sloan has announced he’s going to run in alberta instead of his eastern Ontario riding. He plans to run in this riding although I doubt it will have much impact on the race. Blake Richards has been mp since 2008 in what has been a long time conservative riding in rural alberta .
21/08/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Derek Sloan, who is not only a capable speaker but had the smarts to run here in more friendly territory.
The low Tory numbers heading into the campaign betray a CPC base deeply dissatisfied with Erin O'Toole and the good folks of Banff might just be satisfied to send the Kenny/O'Toole establishment a message in a riding where a left-of-centre victory is practically impossible.
20/08/21 Ian
Derek Sloan will now run here. Unable to get his own party together in time, and too proud to join either the PPC or Christian Heritage, he will ride into the sunset as an Independent. Still a CPC riding.
20/08/21 meme
Derek Sloan is running and he has a lot of media attention. For a right wing riding which votes for the most right wing option, Sloan will have a lot of local support.
19/08/21 Steve Smith
The Western Standard is reporting that Derek Sloan is likely to run in this riding rather than in his current Ontario riding. That will have no effect on the outcome here, which will remain a Conservative hold, but does qualify as ‘mildly interesting’.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.
05/05/21 JW
The most reliably Liberal seat in Ontario, if not Canada. It has consistently elected Liberal federal and provincial members since 1970s (electing Liberals MPs consistently as far back as 1935). No other riding in the province can claim such consistency.

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