Election Prediction Project

Souris-Moose Mountain
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:44:52

Constituency Profile


Ames-Sinclair, Javin

Douglas, Greg

Duerr, Hannah Ann

Kitchen, Robert

Neufeld, Diane


Robert Kitchen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



42348.52 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Robert Kitchen ** 3506784.40%
Ashlee Hicks 32147.70%
Javin Ames-Sinclair 17184.10%
Phillip Zajac 7021.70%
Judy Mergel 6811.60%
Travis Patron 1680.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert Gordon Kitchen 2631570.10%
Vicky O'Dell 513113.70%
Steven Bebbington 507613.50%
Bob Deptuck 9942.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Souris-Moose Mountain
   (93.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 R.O.
Robert Kitchen was first elected in 2015 in what has been a long time conservative riding in rural Saskatchewan. Likely to stay cpc .
21/08/21 A.S.
Not only did it go Liberal in '93, but the present winning share is more than twice that in '04 when Grant Notley ran as an independent (that is, Maverick/PPC-type schisms aren't anything new around these parts). However, if you seek a measure of ugly electoral underbellies, it's in the fact that being the Putin-level 2nd best CPC riding in the country didn't prevent SMM from having landslide polls going to the opposition--all FN, of course. In total, they put CPC in a poor third; as in, under 10%. And among those being Cowessess 73, home of 751 unmarked residential school graves. (And a different element of ugly: this is the riding where Travis Patron, leader of the far-right Canadian Nationalist Party, ran in '19)
09/08/21 Stevo
This seat climbed to the second-highest CPC share in the country, after Battle River-Crowfoot. And this in a place that, hilariously, went Liberal (barely) in 1993!
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural riding in Saskatchewan, should be safe CPC barring a surge from the Mavericks or PPC.

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