Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:44:52

Constituency Profile


Card, Claire

Dumont Walker, Dawn

Fisher, Jeremy

Hunter, North-Marie

Penteado, Guto

Tochor, Corey

Wesolowski, Carl A


Corey Tochor

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



68.91 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Corey Tochor 2451452.10%
Claire Card 1399429.80%
Susan Hayton 614613.10%
Jan Norris 14013.00%
Guto Penteado 6671.40%
Jeff Willerton 3050.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brad Trost ** 1859241.50%
Claire Card 1411531.50%
Cynthia Marie Block 1128725.20%
Valerie Harvey 6861.50%
Eric Matthew Schalm 930.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3100.88%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (68.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (31.25% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/09/21 Physastr Master
This riding deserves more love. Far too little discussion for a riding where 338 has the NDP only 3 points back. It's probably too late to have an actual discussion here, and I think conservative still is the reasonable call, but if it does flip, don't act all surprised... I expect a close race.
25/08/21 R.O.
Corey Tochor was first elected in 2019 although he had been an mla for sask party provincially so well known in the riding. Which has been a long time conservative area of Saskatoon.
21/08/21 A.S.
It didn't have the Trost name on the ballot in '19--but it did have Scheer's leadership; but conversely, Claire Card had a good name from her previous run, and she's running again (and of course, the riding's named ‘University’). So I'd give this one more of a Lewvan-level allowance than in Grasswood--though the maximum-NDP-support zone is merely the Nutana-side counterpart to Grasswood's. (Which, as in Regina, makes one wonder whether the next redistribution should simply create a ‘Saskatoon Centre’. That is, as far as toxic-to-opposition goes in Saskatchewan, suburban-urban mixes are the new ‘rurbans’.)
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Likely should remain safely CPC, as it was won even with the name Brad Trost on the ballot in 2015.

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