Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:44:52

Constituency Profile


Friesen, Mark

Kitzul, Kyla

Sarwar, Rokhan

Walker, Gillian

Waugh, Kevin


Kevin Waugh

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



335.90 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kevin Waugh ** 2633653.30%
Erika Ritchie 1267225.60%
Tracy Muggli 841917.00%
Neil Sinclair 13202.70%
Mark Friesen 6921.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Kevin Waugh 1916641.60%
Scott Bell 1390930.20%
Tracy Muggli 1216526.40%
Mark Bigland-Pritchard 8461.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 430.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 Billy P.
This is my riding for the last 50 years.I am not a member of any political party. The PC member here is popular, and hard working, and pigs will fly before he loses this seat. I expect he will garner over 50% of the vote again.
23/08/21 R.O.
Kevin Waugh was first elected in 2015 in what has been a long time conservative area of Saskatoon so likely he holds this one.
21/08/21 A.S.
Remember that a lot of these low '19 NDP totals in Sask were aggravated by native-son-Scheer-vs-week-Jagmeet perceptions going into the election--indeed, the '15 Lib candidate running again made it look at first like *she* was poised to assume runner-up honours, In the end, the NDP did solidly deflect away that potential-thirddom--but was still outpolled by the Cons by over 2:1 (though they did hold onto the fringe-central Buena Vista zone). To be monitored more in terms of how far the Dippers can revert to something like ‘normal’--and one trouble for opposition forces in seats like this is in how much the ‘Scheer suburban’ demo overlaps w/the ‘O'Toole suburban’ demo; that is, less likelihood of attrition in a Maverick direction. (And even right now, a quarter of the vote for the NDP might seem meagre; but remember that the party was winning Sask seats w/low 30s shares in '93. Of course, that was w/a disunited right, a much more Sask-viable Liberal party, etc)
17/08/21 Sam
After a few goes which led to what might be considered underperformances the NDP fell back to an even lower total last time - not really a surprise, but a mountain to climb back from, in what is a weaker area for them. Whilst some argument could be made about these urban prairie ridings trending away from the CPC, they are often generic and this isn't a close enough riding that a few points here and there is likely to make the difference. Conservative for now.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Likely should remain safely CPC, as it was won even in 2015.

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