Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:44:52

Constituency Profile


Hidlebaugh, Erin

Kram, Michael

Lau, Victor

McEachern, Sean

Milanovski, Mario


Michael Kram

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



61.98 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michael Kram 2241849.40%
Ralph Goodale ** 1524233.60%
Hailey Clark 580112.80%
Tamela Friesen 13162.90%
Mario Milanovski 4501.00%
Evangeline Godron 1280.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ralph Goodale ** 2355255.10%
Michael Kram 1293130.30%
April Bourgeois 536212.60%
Frances Simonson 8782.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

23/08/21 R.O.
This had been Ralph Goodales former riding so not a typical cpc riding but still in Saskatchewan where conservatives poll well and likely current mp Michael Kram holds it this year.
21/08/21 A.S.
Actually, even aside from the Goodale factor that got man-overboarded last time, this might presently be the most ‘organically’ under-congenial Regina riding for CPC--that is, the one that's more ‘neo-Laurentian’ and less Prairie-populist than the rest (that's what having a downtown core, a legislature, a university campus, etc will bring you). But in the present climate, that's likelier to split the opposition than lead to Wascana's vulnerability--the post-Goodale Liberal brand simply isn't strong enough in Sask to generate a Louis-Hebert equivalent, and yet it isn't the kind of vote that'd slide wholesale into the default-Dipper column in Goodale's absence, either.
19/06/21 Stevo
Last election cycle I strongly disagreed with the consensus here. I contended that Goodale was nowhere near as safe as believed, and that ‘winning in 2011’ wasn't a convincing argument in a province where Trudeau is far more toxic than Ignatieff ever was. Looks like my hunch proved correct however I never could have imagined a 16-point spread. Such a big win against a big name should silence those who would dismiss it as a fluke. The Liberals might well be finished in Saskatchewan from Prince Albert southward for the better part of a generation (the one northern riding will presumsably remain a perpetual toss-up).
11/05/21 VotreChoix
This will be a litmus test on whether this was a Goodale seat or if the Liberals will remain competitive (I would guess the former). Goodale was just appointed Canada's Ambassador to the UK so there is no way he is leaving that cushy job to come back and run. Might be interesting to see it switch to a CPC-NDP fight like other Regina/Saskatoon seats, but the lack of a clear left alternative this time may allow the CPC incumbent to sneak through even with the CPC polling low.

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