Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:43:29

Constituency Profile


Bateman, Joyce

Carr, Jim

Hemmerling, Douglas

Riddell, Julia

Scott, Cam

Wells, Chase


Jim Carr

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



45.01 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jim Carr ** 2279945.00%
Joyce Bateman 1505129.70%
Elizabeth Shearer 896517.70%
James Beddome 31736.30%
Jane MacDiarmid 5691.10%
Linda Marynuk 1040.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jim Carr 3199359.70%
Joyce Bateman ** 1510228.20%
Matt Henderson 47999.00%
Andrew Park 16773.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3210.69%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Winnipeg South Centre
   (85.85% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Winnipeg South
   (14.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 GritBusters
Provincial PCs are unpopular. Look for Liberals and NDP to hold any seats that are marginal between themselves and the Tories.
21/08/21 A.S.
Bateman *again*?!? She never stops. And there ought to come a time when familiarity breeds contempt--perhaps, just as with Toronto-St Paul's, we'll be seeing the combined NDP/Green vote surpassing that of the Cons this time...
10/08/21 MF
Winnipeg's most ‘establishmentarian’ riding (and home to most of its Jewish community), Jim Carr should have no problem hanging on in a third round with former one-term Tory MP Joyce Bateman.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
This is exactly the type of inner suburb seat the Liberals have monopolized across the country. Should stay safely Liberal this time too.

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