Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:23:17

Constituency Profile


Boettcher, Greg

Duguid, Terry

Gryba, Byron Curtis

Kahanovitch, Aiden

Maher, Melanie


Terry Duguid

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



102.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Terry Duguid ** 2018242.10%
Melanie Maher 1853738.70%
Jean-Paul Lapointe 667813.90%
Paul Bettess 20734.30%
Mirwais Nasiri 4190.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Terry Duguid 2809658.30%
Gordon Giesbrecht 1670934.70%
Brianne Goertzen 24045.00%
Adam Smith 9902.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Winnipeg South
   (92.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saint Boniface
   (7.76% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/09/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet riding poll for Winnipeg South showing the Liberals with a very comfortable 17 point lead: https://ipolitics.ca/2021/09/09/liberals-ahead-of-tories-in-kanata-carleton-winnipeg-south/. Looks like Terry Duguid is headed for re-election.
07/09/21 Jon
I know this sounds a little crazy, but I am seeing ALOT of PPC signs in this riding. I think people are sick and tired of both the liberals and conservatives and this could be a 3-way race. Bernier had a rally with 2000 people tonight...Trudeau isn't even doing those numbers. I think we are going to see a few surprises on election day.
31/08/21 GritBusters
Provincial PCs are unpopular. Look for Liberals and NDP to hold any seats that are marginal between themselves and the Tories.
23/08/21 R.O.
Typically a swing riding in suburban Winnipeg that has been liberal and conservative in recent years. current mp Terry Dugald was first elected in 2015. Conservative candidate Melanie Maher was also the cpc candidate here in 2019 when she placed a strong second. So need to see how the election plays out before predicting this one.
21/08/21 A.S.
The '15-19 Liberal plummet in Winnipeg was really a Scheery-sectional-politics-in-the-Prairies bandwagon effect--and also a more existential deflation of the united-left-under-the-Liberals formula, as the NDP soared from an atrophied 5% to 14% and the Greens doubled. Justin no longer compelled that '15 scale of enthusiasm in the 'Peg--though at least what remained was enough to him to retain *a* caucus there. And still, keep in mind that the natural pre-90s condition of seats like this would have been suburban Tory. Whether Lib or Con, Winnipeg South's allegiances are ‘conditional’ according to the moment.
30/07/21 Stevo
Perhaps more than any other city in Canada on a relative basis, Liberal numbers in Winnipeg plunged dramatically in 2019 vs 2015, almost costing them this seat. Perhaps it was the overwhelming anti-Liberal tide from AB/SK flowing into MB; this is a province that never seems quite sure whether it wants to join ranks with the Laurentian elites or take up the cause of a fair deal for the West alongside the other Prairie provinces. No Liberal MP in the province can take his or her seat for granted.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
This was competitive in 2019 and I do not expect that to change this time around either, unless the Liberals start surging or the CPC tank.
06/08/21 Thomas K
In recent years, Winnipeg South has been a relatively reliable bellwether for the rest of the country. Given that, I expect the Liberals to win here.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster