Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:43:15

Constituency Profile


Bhakoo, Bhavni

Brenot, Sabrina

Brown, Andrew

Buhler, Jamie

Gazan, Leah

Ong, Paul

Wall, Debra


Leah Gazan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



28.45 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Leah Gazan 1307341.20%
Robert-Falcon Ouellette ** 1070433.70%
Ryan Dyck 556117.50%
Andrea Shalay 16615.20%
Yogi Henderson 4741.50%
Stephanie Hein 2510.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert-Falcon Ouellette 1847154.50%
Pat Martin ** 949028.00%
Allie Szarkiewicz 418912.40%
Don Woodstock 13794.10%
Scott Miller 2210.70%
Darrell Rankin 1350.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1520.59%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Winnipeg Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

10/09/21 Jake H.
Gazan beat the Liberal incumbent Oulette handily in 2019. Running again, Gazan has the advantage of already holding the seat plus another downturn in the polls for the Liberals. It won't be a crushing defeat for them, but this is a safe NDP hold.
09/09/21 DSquared
With the recent surge in support for the PPC nation wide, this riding is in for a shock on election night. Leah Gazan turned her back on the community when she was needed the most during the lockdowns. Additionally, racial minorities have higher rates of so-called vaccine hesitancy than the general public, and the NDP's position on mandatory vaccinations for federal workers will not go over well here. There is a silent surge in PPC support nationwide that will be enough to overcome the entrenched political machinery of current incumbent parties. It will be close, but I predict that Bhavni Bhakoo of the People's Party of Canada will emerge victorious on September 20
24/08/21 Chris N
I’d love to know what happened to Robert-Falcon Ouellette’s nomination this summer. He stated he planned on running again, but then the party suddenly appointed someone else. Regardless, this riding is likely an NDP hold come September.
21/08/21 A.S.
Whenever the federal Libs offer NDP-killing FN stars, they seem to flame out after one election--and Robert-Falcon Ouellette followed in the footsteps of Elijah Harper and Tina Keeper (though in all of those cases, the NDP were hampered by an extenuating matter--Audrey's black hole of a campaign in '93, their former Churchill MP running as an independent in '06, Mulcair's black hole of a campaign + Pat Martin choking on his own abrasiveness in '15). Simply winning in '19 marked Gazan as a powerhouse--though less ‘third way’ and more AOC-esque than Pat Martin; which is why *any* notion of inner-city condo-gentrification *could* pose a threat. But, really; in the end, Winnipeg Centre is more of a Vancouver East than Vancouver Centre sort of place, where the spot gentrification gets lost in the maw. (One other interesting bit of polling trivia: the riding's western fringe, King Edward et al, actually went Conservative--like it really would rather have been in a Charleswood et al sort of place).
13/08/21 R.O.
Would expect this one to stay ndp although could still be competitive if the liberals run the former mp from 2015. But has historically been an ndp riding .
10/08/21 MF
A low income, inner city riding and traditional stronghold for the NDP, Leah Gazan won by a fairly comfortable margin in 2019 taking out one-term Liberal Robert-Falcon Ouellette. . And with the NDP's fortunes on the upswing she should have little problem holding Winnipeg Centre.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Could be NDP-Liberal competitive, but the way the NDP is polling right now it's probably safe to give it to them.

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