Election Prediction Project

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:43:06

Constituency Profile


Agboola, Shola

Anderson, Scott A A

Berthiaume, Denis

Boudreault, Jean-Denis

CoRhino, Sébastien

Correia, Matthew

Crisostomo, Naomi

Currie, Charles

Desbiens, Manon Lili

Engering, Alexandra

Falkingham, Scott

Hildebrandt, Kerri

Huard, Ryan

Lukawski, Conrad

MacDiarmid, Jane

Poliquin, Laurent

Rosenblum, Eliana

Strzalkowski, Patrick

Szuchewycz, Tomas

Vandal, Dan

Waters, Meghan


Dan Vandal

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



63.43 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Dan Vandal ** 2030042.90%
Rejeanne Caron 1543632.60%
Billie Cross 803717.00%
Ben Linnick 26715.60%
Adam McAllister 5911.20%
Sharma Baljeet 3030.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Dan Vandal 2853058.40%
François Catellier 1400528.70%
Erin Selby 516910.60%
Glenn Zaretski 11192.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saint Boniface
   (98.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Winnipeg South
   (1.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

02/09/21 R.O.
This riding has the most crazy ballot with 14 independent candidates running here and not sure why if its some sort of record attempt or protest . likely to stay liberal as Dan Vandal has been mp since 2015 . although riding had been conservative from 2008-11 when Shelly Glover mp so its not entirely liberal in recent years. the cpc candidate is Shola Agboola as 2019 candidate Rejeanne Caron is running in Elmwood Transcona instead.
25/08/21 DecisionDeskJockey
Dan Vandal has longstanding name recognition in the riding, while the Conservatives did not find anyone of remotely similar stature to mount a challenge. With suburban Sage Creek and deep south St. Boniface rapidly being built out, the francophone factor is diminishing. However, it's still sufficient to move this out of the ‘competitive’ category (unlike its otherwise similar neighbour Winnipeg South) -- even in a down year for the LPC.
21/08/21 A.S.
Franco-Manitoban tradition dictates that this stays Liberal except in downtimes for the party--even though the riding's growth is increasingly tenuously related to said Franco-Manitobanness. Benefiting from Justinmania giddiness in '15, Vandal lost ground to all parties as such giddiness soured in '19--what's interesting is how the NDP exploded, relatively speaking, in urban Winnipeg--that is, unless Justinmania had earlier strategically suppressed it, and they now benefited from a Wab Kinew provincial honeymoon. For all one knows, if there's a further pandemic-election backlash to Justin and the Cons still can't get beyond treading water, this could be an unforeseen *three*-way race...
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Likely will stay safe Liberal. When this went Conservative this went that way only for Shelly Glover, not the party.

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