Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:43:02

Constituency Profile


Falk, Ted

Gautron, N?el

Gibson, Janine G.

Kirczenow, Trevor

Loewen, Rick

Pottinger, Serina


Ted Falk

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



18100.37 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ted Falk ** 3182165.90%
Trevor Kirczenow 634713.10%
Erin McGee 618712.80%
Janine G. Gibson 28846.00%
Wayne Sturby 10662.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ted Falk ** 2508656.10%
Terry Hayward 1550934.70%
Les Lilley 23715.30%
Jeff Wheeldon 17794.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 6251.79%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (95.98% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 R.O.
Ted Falk was first elected in a by election in 2013 , this has been a conservative riding for some time other than a brief liberal mp in the 90’s. is a lot of anti lockdown/vaccine folks here so could see a stronger than expected ppc run here but likely to stay cpc
21/08/21 A.S.
Re ‘diversity’, it's true that Steinbach-type settlements are united not through race but through creed: a kind of built-in ‘sorting’. And while the riding's known for its Mennonite community, it's also known for its Metis settlements--and that's what led to Iftody's victories in the 90s as well as the high '15 share: the Steinbachs countered by the Ste Annes and Lorettes, IOW. But in '19, the only non-CPC poll remaining was an NDP reserve poll, as the Lib-NDP gap at large went from nearly 30 points to near-parity.
09/08/21 Stevo
The robust 35% Liberal share in 2015 was a throwback to the 90s (Liberal David Iftody won here in 1993/97), but it couldn't last. Despite Steinbach being known for its Mennonite community, it's actually a fairly diverse small city, relatively speaking. The two largest minority groups - Filipinos and Hispanics - are often religious and as likely to vote CPC as Liberal.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural riding in Manitoba, should be safe CPC

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