Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:42:57

Constituency Profile


Bergen, Candice

Carrier, Andrew

Dondo, Jerome

Friesen, Ken

Wiebe, Solomon


Candice Bergen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



12509.09 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Candice Bergen ** 3160070.80%
Ken Werbiski 477910.70%
Cindy Friesen 38728.70%
Beverley Eert 23565.30%
Aaron Archer 11692.60%
Jerome Dondo 8601.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Candice Bergen ** 2506060.80%
Ken Werbiski 1062125.80%
Dean Harder 25546.20%
Beverley Eert 16374.00%
Jerome Dondo 13153.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 8092.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Jon
Going to see a potential upset possibly here this time. No question this riding should be too close to call at least. I am seeing a upset with the PPC winning a seat from the Conservatives. Winkler had 3000 people at a Bernier rally in a farmers field the other day and the PPC have incredible momentum. Going to be a very tight race, but I think it’s the PPC party that will win a seat here.
05/09/21 Eduard Hiebert
Voting is a vital civic statement of Canadian citizenship. However with 80% of Canadians not wanting this election and so said almost all MP's but the majority of them including our incumbent did not takes steps as in Israel, where the majority has little common cause but to oust the long standing government. Canadian MPs could have done the same with a lot less effort.
While I respect democratic results even if my preferred candidate is not elected, and although Portage Lisgar over my half-century of voting had at least one non-Con (John Gerard Liberal), I do not believe for above stated reasons any of the party candidates presently in Ottawa beginning with Candace Bergen after her MAGA (Make America Great Again) hat matter, that any of them deserve my vote.
As there is no independent and accordingly I will vote Solomon Wiebe (PPP) knowing that as a wild card should he be elected a new broom would be much better than an old one.
But more importantly, it gives me a place to park my vote and make the clearest statement possible that not one of the current parties in Ottawa deserve my vote and in this particular election as a huge exception to all of my voting practice I will pinch my nose very hard and vote PPP.
Thereby providing a clear message with zero downside risk, a place to still exercise my civic duty and increasing however slightly the possibility of another minority government.
21/08/21 A.S.
The best Con seat in Manitoba it always was and so it shall remain, even if Bergen isn't serving Charlie McCarthy leadership the way she was in '19. And it's saying something about Manitoba that ‘best’ worked out to be just over 70%, i.e. outpolled by 6 predominantly rural ridings in Sask and everything in Alberta that wasn't Calg/Edm/Leth. (And here, the Libs *did* retain 2nd--then again, it was the same candidate as in '15, and the 2011 version of the riding was one of only 2 in the *country* where the NDP had a single-digit share. And while the Libs carried downtown PLP in '15, they were blanked in all but FN settlements in '19 and the only non-CPC-majority PLP polls remaining had the NDP in 2nd.)
13/08/21 R.O.
Candice Bergen has been mp for some time in this rural / long time conservative riding so would expect that to continue .
09/08/21 Stevo
This may be a safe Conservative seat, but Candice Bergen's effectiveness and high profile as an MP probably boosts the CPC share even further.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural riding in Manitoba, should be safe CPC

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