Election Prediction Project

Kildonan-St. Paul
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-06 12:19:58

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Mary-Jane

Clark, Emily

Dancho, Raquel

Howe, Sean


Raquel Dancho

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



170.46 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Raquel Dancho 1985644.80%
MaryAnn Mihychuk ** 1235627.90%
Evan Krosney 938721.20%
Rylan Reed 17774.00%
Martin Deck 5101.20%
Spencer Katerynuk 3040.70%
Eduard Hiebert 1080.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

MaryAnn Mihychuk 1871742.70%
Jim Bell 1747839.80%
Suzanne Hrynyk 627014.30%
Steven Stairs 7831.80%
David Reimer 4851.10%
Eduard Walter Hiebert 1420.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3480.95%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

16/09/21 George
Mainstreet has a close race here
09/09/21 TS
Unsure why this is still a question mark. Dancho is pretty well liked in the riding and beat the Liberal incumbent convincingly last election. Her likeability was suffering a bit at the start of the race more due to people unsure about O’Toole but with his fortunes rising this won’t be as much of an issue now. The Liberals lost their nominated Candidate and didn’t even appoint a new on until after the writ was dropped and the campaign took a long time to get out of low gear. The Liberal candidate is a parachute candidate who lives in Winnipeg (BC) and has suffered some bad press from her prior think tank work were her employer suggested residential school survivors made up their stories, also she’s big into privatisation and has written papers on privatizing federal assets. As her biggest struggle will be to win votes from NDP fence sitters and left leaning undecides, her noted positions will only lose her votes to the NDP and win her nothing from those leaning between CPC and Liberal. NDP candidate once again is unknown and inexperienced. Liberals and NDP will split the left of centre vote and Dancho’s support will mostly hold allowing her to win by at least a 10% margin, if not more than before. Anyone thinking this is a question mark riding ( at this point in the race) is not paying attention.
01/09/21 Sam
When it comes to the West, signs are pointing to the areas where the CPC haven't been doing so well as the more urban ridings, which may hinder them in Edmonton Centre, or against the NDP in Saskatoon West, but there haven't been signs that trend has spread to these suburban areas. The riding is very much an older one as well as has been said, older than most of the rural Prairie ridings. And I think Raquel Dancho being a good fit is proving to be a consensus here. I suppose TCTC makes sense out of caution but I think a CPC call would be fair.
27/08/21 BJ
Looks like a lot of support in the older suburbs as well as the new developments...with CPC support on the rise she should be able to hold this riding.
21/08/21 Thomas K
I agree with A.S. Raquel Dancho really is a bit of a Manitoban MRG type, and she has been quite an active MP. On the track things are going right now, I see the Conservatives holding this.
21/08/21 A.S.
A non-predictive allowance for extra air out of the Conservative tires in the West, particularly in urban seats--though this is really more of a ‘rurban’ seat, or at least it's the only Winnipeg-based seat which traverses the bounds of Unicity (i.e. the St. Paul part). Still, Dancho is a bit like a younger Manitoban version of Michelle Rempel (i.e. in the sense of being a next-gen caucus star breaking the party's crusty-old-male pigeonhole)--plus, the '19 result highlighted an opposition dilemma: more than in any other Winnipeg riding, KSP is where the NDP and Libs can cancel one another out. (And judging from the scale of Mihychuk's defeat, I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP pushes ahead of the Libs this time.)
15/08/21 R.O.
Raquel Dancho is a relatively new mp in this suburban Winnipeg riding which has mostly been cpc in recent elections and would expect it to stay cpc .
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Maybe a bold prediction here but I think this will stay CPC. Outside of 2015 this seat generally stayed Conservative, although Mihychek's popularity changed that for the 2015 blip.

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