Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:42:33

Constituency Profile


Blaikie, Daniel

Caron, Rejeanne

Cumming, Jamie

Hinchey, Devlin

Mirwaldt, Sara


Daniel Blaikie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



49.62 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Daniel Blaikie ** 1978645.60%
Lawrence Toet 1624037.50%
Jennifer Malabar 534612.30%
Kelly Manweiler 14803.40%
Noel Gautron 5121.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Daniel Blaikie 1470934.10%
Lawrence Toet ** 1464834.00%
Andrea Richardson-Lipon 1271329.50%
Kim Parke 10162.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 70.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (96.62% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Kildonan-St. Paul
   (3.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saint Boniface
   (0.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/09/21 Former Resident
As a former resident with family still living in this riding, I could simply click NDP and assume the prediction would be given due weight. But I offer a brief analysis, namely, that this riding stays NDP almost without fail no matter the election dynamics. In the days when the NDP were reduced to a handful of seats, the pater familias Bill Blaikie won the seat. By virtue of just winning the seat over and over and over again, which may have led some to conclude that winning was the product of achievement or qualification, Blaikie senior was trotted out to run for the leadership of the party and had a chance to win over the newcomer, a person you might have heard of named Jack Layton. Fortunately for the NDP, the savvier voter saw truth from fiction and Mr Layton was chosen to ride an orange wave. However, not to be outdone by the clear message being sent to the Blaikie entourage that being able to trip into repeated electoral victory in suburban Winnipeg does not necessarily translate into the skills needed to lead a federal party, the family sent Bill’s daughter to NDP HQ where, no post secondary training or worldly experience in hand, she ran the 2015 campaign for Tom Mulcair. The reader of this post needs no lesson on what happened to the NDP then, a result that is haunting them even now. But have no fear! Just as Blaikie Junior was running her party to the ground by promising tax cuts(!), Blaikie junior number 2, this time the son of the father, was gathering support to run locally. And he won and he will win again. I therefore predict that Blaikie fils, electrician turned politician by default, will win. Whether he one day is tapped to also take the NDP into the gutter like his sister aptly did is, I daresay, a matter for another conversation board.
31/08/21 GritBusters
Provincial PCs are unpopular. Look for Liberals and NDP to hold any seats that are marginal between themselves and the Tories.
Also, an incumbent NDP MP who's a Blaikie won't hurt matters here.
23/08/21 DecisionDeskJockey
The provincial PCs are unpopular right now and this riding, while it was shifting right due to new suburban developments, didn't care for the PCs' downgrading of the Concordia Hospital, which led among other things to the unexpected loss of the Transcona seat in the 2019 provincial elections. Blaikie is now entrenched, the Liberal lustre is gone, so there is really nothing to see here.
23/08/21 R.O.
Long time ndp riding in Winnipeg although did go cpc in 2011 , former cpc candidate and mp Lawrence Toet is not back this year. Replaced by Rejeanne Caron who was the cpc candidate in Saint Bonface in 2019. Current ndp mp Daniel Blaike first elected in 2015 but his father held same riding for years prior. So riding is mostly a race between the ndp and conservatives.
21/08/21 A.S.
It might have been an ‘only’ 8 point gap in '19; but remember that both Jagmeet and Wab Kinew are up in popularity while the Cons have skidded--also, the former CPC MP (who *should have* benefited from the Scheer wave, but didn't, even if his share also went up from '15) is no longer running. replaced by a trollish standard-bearer who ran in St. Bon in '19. Looks like we're back to the name ‘Blaikie’ being unqualified electoral gold in this NE Winnipeg neck of the woods.
04/08/21 Laurence Putnam
While debatable in the last go around, it seems clear that the larger chunk of the Liberal vote in 2015 safely coalesced around Blaikie allowing him to continue the family business in Elmwood-Transcona. Although this riding may not be immune to future Conservative high tides, Blaikie the younger ought to be safe this go-around.
03/08/21 Marco Ricci
The NDP prediction makes sense. Blaikie was able to substantially increase his winning margin over the Conservatives in 2019 despite the fact that the Conservatives gained ground in other parts of Manitoba. If the Conservatives couldn't win here in 2019, Blaikie is likely to be re-elected again this time.
06/06/21 Chris N
I'm not a Manitoban, but I'm surprised to see this as an NDP prediction, given that the NDP only won this riding by 8 points in 2019. I would say Too Close to Call.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
With the NDP polling decently, this should likely stay NDP, although if they go lower again this will be competitive with the CPC.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster