Election Prediction Project

Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:42:28

Constituency Profile


Carlson, Kevin

Falloon-Austin, Lori

Holroyd, Arthur

Lambrecht, Shirley

Mazier, Dan

McKenna, Donnan


Dan Mazier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



50818.98 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Dan Mazier 2610364.30%
Laverne Lewycky 572414.10%
Cathy Scofield-Singh 534413.20%
Kate Storey 22145.50%
Frank Godon 7111.80%
Jenni Johnson 4701.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Robert Sopuck ** 1927646.30%
Ray Piché 1227629.50%
Laverne M. Lewycky 509712.30%
Inky Mark 33578.10%
Kate Storey 15923.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 270.08%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
   (85.61% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (10.09% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.31% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/08/21 A.S.
Another case where Scheermania pricked a hole in the rural Justinmania bubble, leading to a 50-point advantage (and a bigger CPC jump than usual, as Inky Mark skewed down the '15 figure) and the NDP toeing into 2nd instead. Though unlike Brandon-Souris, DSRN *does* have a federal NDP history; indeed, its last such federal office holder, Laverne Lewycky, bore the standard in '15 and '19 as a glory-years throwback to a once-viable older breed of rural Prairie Dipperism. (Unfortunately, there's no hat trick to that late-life comeback; Lewycky died in August 2020.)
13/08/21 R.O.
Dan Mazier is a lower profile first time mp but a long time conservative riding in rural manitoba so likely to stay cpc .
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural riding in Manitoba, should be safe CPC

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