Election Prediction Project

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-03 11:00:43

Constituency Profile


Ashton, Niki

Larocque, Charlotte

McLean, Ralph

Robinson, Shirley

Young, Dylan


Niki Ashton

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



433173.82 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Niki Ashton ** 1191950.30%
Judy Klassen 561623.70%
Cyara Bird 471419.90%
Ralph McLean 11444.80%
Ken Klyne 2941.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Niki Ashton ** 1348745.00%
Rebecca Chartrand 1257542.00%
Kyle G. Mirecki 309010.30%
August Hastmann 5371.80%
Zachary Linnick 2550.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (92.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (7.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.08% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Jake H.
This seemed like it would be much closer even just a week ago, and now it seems like a very safe hold for the NDP.
They probably won't win by as many votes as last time, but Niki Ashton has held the seat since 2008 and that year and 2015 (the Liberal Sweep year) were the only years she came close to losing. The NDP are certainly winning both the ‘word of mouth’ and ‘lawn signs’ war.
I'm curious to see how well the Conservatives do in C-KA this time around, but I'd be surprised to see them take this seat from her, and shocked to see the Liberals take it given current polling trends.
07/09/21 South Islander
Local factors will decide this election. There is a perception that Ashton is preoccupied with proving her progressive bona fides on the national stage in relation to issues unimportant to her riding. Ashton's 2 trips to Greece during the pandemic reminded voters of the extreme privilege of this daughter of a former provincial cabinet minister and long-time MLA. This district is 61.1% First Nations. FN leaders are enthusiastic about Robinson. Two chiefs endorsing Robinson at an NDP event got national attention, and created waves within the district. Ashton may have won by over 26% last time but she actually won 1,500 fewer votes than in 2015 when she only won by 3% or by 912 votes. A mix of a few NDP converts and increased turnout will be the key to a Robinson win. Don't let the 2019 results fool you - Ashton is in trouble.
06/09/21 OBV
Tone-deaf Ashton will lose her seat. The fact that she was out campaigning for Bernie in an entirety different country won’t be lost on the voters. The First Nations will vote Liberal and bring one of their own to office and not an out-of-touch career politician daydreaming about politics in another country.
03/09/21 Sam
There will no doubt be people pleased to see Niki Ashton lose, but I doubt they'll get to see it. As PhysastrMaster said, very much a case of denting her own position rather than losing, and the race isn't garnering the same attention as it might have done.
Also, there are still a good number of NDP voters in Flin Flon and Thompson off the reserves, and I doubt they will be swinging Liberal off this. In any case, it was a spectacle that garnered attention from the awkwardness of it - but it's not the first time FN Leaders have endorsed candidates, and whether that endorsement will be so much more salient this time we shall find out.
01/09/21 Physastr Master
I don't care what's happening on the ground, the liberals aren't going to make up a 2:1 deficit in a year they're trending down. With local drama, Niki might get fewer votes than last time. Maybe. But this sort of thing can swing a close race, and this is not one of those. If the NDP loses Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, they won't get official party status in parliament. Strong NDP.
01/09/21 ME
2 FN have endorsed the liberal candidate who is also First Nations...Seems to be a dispute over the Northern railway with Ashton ..She may or may not hold on
31/08/21 jeff316
All the signs point to this being a rought ride for Ashton. Her dad is becoming a passing memory and her politics are less and less suited to the riding. The Liberals are running a First Nation candidate that has the backing of the local First Nation leadership. Ashton took local flak for her trip to Greece this summer admist lockdown requirements while local families were unable or advised against visiting their own families.
31/08/21 GritBusters
Niki Ashton will win big. This riding is hers till she doesn't want it anymore.
21/08/21 A.S.
One of a pair of NDP majorities in '19; Niki might be too woke for some, but certainly not her constituents. A good illustration of the travails of Justin in Manitoba: in '15, the Libs came within 3 points of an upset. In '19, with a high-profile MLA and former interim leader of the provincial party as their candidate, they were outpolled by over 2:1. (Meanwhile, CPC did well among the old-stock resource demo in Thompson, Flin Flon & The Pas--but certainly not enough to sway the riding, or even to finish 2nd. Unfortunately, the riding's absent the kind of white-agricultural-settlement territory that'd typically generate a nuclear-Con spirit elsewhere in the West.)
19/08/21 Laurence Putnam
If the Liberals couldn't snatch this away from the NDP during their highest tide in 2015, or the NDP's lowest ebb in 2019, there's no way they're going to take it now.
15/08/21 Sam
It's hard to see either of the opposition parties get enough votes to take this from Niki Ashton - she's entrenched and the NDP always do well enough here to for her to seal the deal.
11/05/21 VotreChoix
This should be safe NDP for the time being. Conservatives and Liberals have both put in effort in this seat before with minimal results to show for it.

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