Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:42:12

Constituency Profile


Baer, Tylor

Branconnier, Linda

Hodgins, Whitney

Maguire, Larry


Larry Maguire

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



17842.36 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Larry Maguire ** 2614863.50%
Ashley Duguay 580514.10%
Terry Hayward 497212.10%
Bill Tiessen 29847.20%
Robin Lussier 6911.70%
Rebecca Hein 2800.70%
Vanessa Hamilton 2190.50%
Robert Eastcott 1070.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Larry Maguire ** 2066650.30%
Jodi Wyman 1533837.30%
Melissa Joy Wastasecoot 25766.30%
David Neufeld 25266.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 180.05%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (96.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

23/08/21 R.O.
Larry Mcquire was first elected in a close 2013 by election but riding has been a long time conservative area of Manitoba so likely to stay cpc .
22/08/21 Jon
Maguire has been more of a classic Progressive Conservative, and more acceptable to electors who might otherwise go Liberal or NDP. That along with his and his party's popularity in the riding give him another reelection.
21/08/21 A.S.
A riding that epitomizes the rural cave-in of Justinmania in the Prairies--though admittedly, the '15 Liberal number might have been inflated on post-byelection momentum. And in the vacuum created, the return of the NDP as a remote--*very* remote; as in, nearly 50 points back--nominal-opposition force. If it echoes provincial history, NDP will be favoured. If it's a carryover from ‘Rick Borotsik Toryism’, Lib will be favoured. And in both cases, only as a 2nd place force. (Even when the NDP was a healthier force in rural Manitoba, Brandon-Souris eluded it, despite Brandon being Manitoba's ‘2nd city’ w/a provincial party history.)
11/05/21 VotreChoix
Rural riding in Manitoba, should be safe CPC

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster