Election Prediction Project

York Centre
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-11 10:59:17

Constituency Profile


Ahmed, Kemal

Etienne, Joel Yakov

Nguyen, Nixon

Saks, Ya'ara


Ya'ara Saks

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



35.20 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Michael Levitt ** 2168050.20%
Rachel Willson 1585236.70%
Andrea Vásquez Jiménez 42519.80%
Rebecca Wood 14033.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michael Levitt 2013146.90%
Mark Adler ** 1889344.00%
Hal Berman 31487.30%
Constantine Kritsonis 7721.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 00.00%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   York Centre
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Roman Baber 1843450.15%
Andrea Vásquez Jiménez 861723.44%
Ramon Estaris 786521.39%
Roma Lyon 8432.29%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4251.40%

17/09/21 prognosticator15
While no longer reliably Liberal and creating a chance for the Cons, Jewish vote is unlikely to swing to Cons more than in a narrow Lib by-election win in 2020. Aside from the fact it is a diverse riding more than a 'Jewish' one (we can only talk of greater Jewish concentration here than in most of 416), the vote tends to ally more along socio-economic lines than strictly identitarian ones in such urban areas, and it affects pro-Lib York Centre in Lib-dominated 416 area where Libs hold a solid poll lead beyond the margin of error (as opposed to say, much more pro-Cons Thornhill outside of 416 where Jewish and other factors favor Conservatives). All parties putting progressive label on them have explicit Jew-haters for sure, but it is doubtful that statements by candidates from ouside the riding (say, Liberal Atwin in Fredericton, among others) will have a direct impact on an urban riding where Lib political machine have made sure to put Jewish names on the ballot. Of record, Liberal Michael Levitt left to lead a Jewish lobby group, while the current Liberal Jewish MP since 2020 was put on record by pro-Lib mainstream press as arguing against Israel-bashers in the NDP. Due to all these Liberal smoke and mirrors, liberal leanings of many urban Jews on socio-cultural issues plus a general tendency to not put specifically 'Jewish' issues on top of the voting priorities, it is insufficient to claim either
antisemitic or anti-Israel tendencies among the Libs and other progressives will result in specific voting changes here overriding other factors. Rather, whatever is called Jewish vote here will remain divided. As a more general comment, we look now at a possible Liberal sweep of 416 area as well as Peel no matter how the races go elsewhere, consolidating against the Tories and the NDP and being well equipped to address dangers arising to Libs from a small number of potential 'upset' ridings (Mississauga Lakeshore, Streetville, or Erin Mills, Scarborough Agincourt, perhaps one or two more). This metropolitan consolidation is what makes Liberals so sure they will not fall as low as in 2011 even with the worst possible outcome. We'll see whether 'upset' will happen in any of these 416 and Peel ridings, but York Center is not the likeliest.
Strong Jewish community & strong Jewish Conservative candidate in the riding.
11/09/21 Drew613
Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping. This is also almost unchanged (well within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. I think the TCTC York Centre hype is due to the extremely close by-election, but those are always unpredictable (and in this case, ultra-low turnout even by by-election standards) York Centre = Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view
02/09/21 R.O.
Mostly been a liberal riding in recent memory but was conservative in 2011 when Mark Adler mp. the conservatives also did well here in the 2020 by election when Julius Tiangson there candidate. Then they went and replaced him with Joel Etienne who has never ran federally before. Still if the cpc posts a strong result anywhere in Toronto its likely to be in this riding . it had also went pc provincially by a large margin but Roman Barber is now an independent.
28/08/21 Rt. Hon. Adult
There's an old adage in Canadian politics which should be heeded here: ‘It's Mainstreet...’
I don't think the Tories are at the point yet of taking this riding or any 416 seat, but York Center will certainly be the first to fall if the Liberals don't find an excuse for why we needed this gong show before Labour Day.
23/08/21 Drew613
A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals holding a commanding lead at 50% support in the 416. I think this can be moved (along with all of the 416) to a Liberal hold. I think the razor-thin victory in the by-election, with a ridiculously low turnout (even by by-election standards) is the only reason this was put at TCTC in the first place. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077
28/07/21 A.S.
It should have been '19's likeliest CPC pickup in the 416; but then they had to nominate a Scheer-punchline of a blonde candidate w/anti-abortion views. Then in the byelection--which was overlooked in the concurrent hoopla over Annamie Paul in Toronto Centre--it's like all was *almost* forgiven. But it was a byelection w/a byelection-type turnout; and besides, the O'Toole leadership was in something of a sleeper ‘honeymoon period’. If O'Toole sought to project a viable, diverse ‘modern 416’ candidacy image, Etienne's the perfect candidate for a CPC-electable riding--that is, if the 416 has a taste for electing the federal Cons anymore. I'll withhold a prediction just in case; but if elected, Etienne could be awfully alone...
08/05/21 Chris N
The CPC came very close to an upset in the recent by-election. The demographics of the riding are changing, including a growing a Filipino electorate which tend to be socially conservative. Surprisingly, the CPC candidate who ran in the by-election, Julius Tiangson, did not win the party nomination for this election, losing to newcomer Joel Etienne. This will be a close to race to watch.

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